Revisiting 2025 Complex League Picks: Hits, Misses & More

Image credit: Orioles RHP Esteban Mejia (Photo by Mike Janes/Four Seam Images)

Before the first pitches were thrown in the Arizona and Florida Complex Leagues, Baseball America picked 10 players to watch on each circuit. Some were standouts from the 2024 Dominican Summer Leagues, while others were draft picks from last summer who were unlikely to land on full-season rosters immediately.

Both leagues are finished—the Angels and Blue Jays claimed the respective titles in Arizona and Florida—so now is as good a time as any to take a look back and see how many of our preseason picks hit the mark.

Arizona Complex League

First up, Arizona. Here are our picks from just before Opening Day in the desert.

Emil Morales, SS, Dodgers
Joswa Lugo, SS, Angels
Jhonny Level, SS, Giants
Chase Mobley, RHP, Guardians
Yolfran Castillo, SS, Rangers
Humberto Cruz, RHP, Padres
David Shields, LHP, Royals
Gabriel Rodriguez, SS, Guardians
Ronny Cruz, SS, Cubs
Tyson Lewis, SS, Reds

The first impression we get from looking back at this is that there are a heck of a lot of shortstops populating those 10 names. Secondly, when comparing this list with the league’s Top 25 prospects ranked after the season, we did pretty darn well.

Level was the runaway choice for the ACL’s top prospect, and Lewis got a vote for the top spot from one scout too. Lugo and Morales showed flashes of brilliance—Morales in particular got better down the stretch—although each showed clear spots where more polish needed to be applied.

Castillo showed the tools to stick at shortstop, though his offensive profile has taken a bit of a hit because of a lack of impact behind his contact. Ronny Cruz showed enough promise to get plucked by the Nationals in the deal that sent Michael Soroka to Chicago, and Rodriguez displayed plenty of upside in a season shortened by injuries.

What about the pitchers?

Humberto Cruz intrigued scouts more than his numbers might indicate, especially considering his clean delivery and projectable frame. Shields left the league in a hurry, moving to Low-A Columbia after just one start in Surprise. He has excelled in the Carolina League, where he has punched out 54 hitters in 48.2 innings over 13 starts.

About the only miss here was Mobley, who struggled mightily to throw strikes and finished with 18 walks in 17 innings over eight starts.

Still, nine out of 10 ain’t bad.

Florida Complex League

But what about Florida? Here’s how that list looked just before Opening Day. And here’s the list of the top 25 prospects after the season completed.

Yairo Padilla, SS, Cardinals
Esteban Mejia, RHP, Orioles
Justin Gonzales, 1B, Red Sox
Eduardo Beltre, OF, Twins
Rainiel Rodriguez, C, Cardinals
Ethan Schiefelbein, LHP, Tigers
Jose Paulino, RHP, Marlins
Luke Dickerson, SS, Nationals
Edward Florentino, OF, Pirates
Dalvinson Reyes, RHP, Red Sox

If the ACL list was a bull’s-eye, the FCL list was a bit more scattershot. We got the league’s top prospect in Mejia, whose stuff was undeniably the best in either league, as well as a fast-rising position player in Pittsburgh prospect Florentino.

Part of the misses here were guys who either played in the FCL sparingly or not at all. Dickerson annihilated the league for six games before getting bumped to Low-A, and Gonzales got into just one game before being summoned to Salem. Schiefelbein made just three starts before landing on the 60-day injured list, and Paulino spent his second straight season in the Dominican Summer League.

Rodriguez racked up enough at-bats to qualify for the league’s Top 25 before bashing his way to Low-A Palm Beach. His seven home runs were good enough to tie for second in the league despite playing just 20 games ahead of his full-season debut. Fellow Cardinals prospect showed hints of his upside throughout the course of his season, though he has plenty of rough edges to smooth out on both sides of the ball before he can reach his ceiling.

Reyes was Florida’s version of Mobley thanks to a strong pedigree entering the year but a severe lack of strikes that put a damper on his outlook. He walked 20 hitters in 16.1 innings. Beltre teased with his power potential but didn’t make nearly enough contact to give scouts optimism that he will hit as he moves up the ladder. The early days of his tenure at Low-A Fort Myers have laid bare those issues as well.

In all, our preseason predictions captured both season-ending No. 1 prospects while also showcasing the volatility of talent at the lowest levels of the minor leagues.