13 Underrated Minor League Pitchers With Traits To Target In 2026
Image credit: Trey Gibson (Photo by Mike Janes/Four Seam Images)
After focusing on minor league hitters with traits to target yesterday, let’s turn our attention to the mound.
There are a few ways a pitcher can be considered “underrated” by RoboScout. Sometimes it means RoboScout projects future production better than consensus or industry lists suggest. In some cases—like Tigers righthander Troy Melton or Brewers cambio specialist Logan Henderson, both RoboScout favorites over the last two years—the fantasy industry is only now catching up.
Another signal comes from underlying metrics. If a pitcher’s whiff and chase rates outperformed his actual strikeout rate, that’s a sign of an underrated prospect. Similarly, if his Ball% (which is more predictive of walks than walk rate itself) points to better command, RoboScout can flag him as undervalued.
With access to granular pitch data, we can dissect a pitcher’s arsenal and “Stuff” to identify traits that portend future success. Much like our internal Stuff model, we grade each pitch by comparing its whiff rate, chase rate and Ball% to league averages. For example, the average curveball generates a 37% whiff rate and 24% chase rate. A curveball at 52% whiffs or 34% chases would grade as a “60.”
By evaluating each pitcher’s arsenal through this lens—and incorporating Stuff+—we can spotlight arms who have the ingredients to outperform traditional public projection systems that are based on surface stats. Let’s dig in.
Glossary: FF = four-seam fastball, CB = curveball, CH = changeup, SL = slider, SI = sinker/two-seamer, CT = cutter, SW = sweeper, FS = splitter. The number in parentheses is pitch usage rate. The bolded number is the calculated pitch grade based on whiff rate and chase rate compared to average for that pitch type (20-80 scale with 50 being average).
Wei-En Lin, LHP, Athletics
- FF (53%) 62
- CB (18%) 52
- CH (16%) 62
- SL (13%) 53
- Overall Ball% 31%
At just 19, Lin was already a RoboScout darling in 2025 after excelling across both Class A levels, even making two Double-A appearances. RoboScout projects him to peak as a midrotation starter with a 1.20 WHIP, 3.80 ERA and 24% strikeout rate. But because his fastball sits just 91 mph, he isn’t yet universally viewed as a top prospect, and certainly not as highly as his performance suggests.
Even despite below-average velocity, the numbers under the hood justify Lin’s success. All four of his pitches generate average to above-average whiff rates.
His four-seamer is especially unique. It elicited an astounding 44% chase rate with a 22% ball rate, meaning that even in the infrequent moments his fastball is out of the zone, batters can’t resist swinging. Only Dodgers RHP Emmet Sheehan produced a higher chase rate on four-seamers thrown at least 150 times, and Lin threw over 600 fastballs in 2025. Lin’s heater had an above-average whiff rate (28%) and it’s aided by 6.6 feet of extension, 18 inches of IVB, 13 inches of tail and deceptive release traits, making it difficult for hitters to pick up.
Lin’s 83 mph slider is another outlier. His +7.5 inches of IVB is double-plus, meaning that amount of lift occurs less than 3% of the time in the minor leagues. That would’ve been the 15th-highest amount of IVB among qualified big league sliders, tied with Paul Skenes and Clayton Kershaw.
For RoboScout, a teenager with this kind of arsenal qualifies as underrated. There’s precent for low-velocity, high-extension fastballs with unique traits finding success in the majors, even in Lin’s own organization. Fellow A’s lefty Jacob Lopez sits 90-91 and threw 92.2 MLB innings with a 4.08 ERA and a 3.64 xERA. Lin should open 2026 in Double-A with a real chance to reach Oakland before turning 21.
Trey Gibson, RHP, Orioles
- FF (30%) 53
- CT (19%) 46
- CB (17%) 55
- SW (15%) 49
- SL (11%) 57
- Ball% 34%
Gibson pounds the zone at an above-average rate with a deep five-pitch mix, highlighted by three above-average pitches and a sweeper that grades out with average results yet great Stuff+ metrics.
RoboScout has been on high on Gibson all year, and the underlying metrics don’t diminish that love. His above-average 94 mph fastball plays up thanks to seven feet of extension and more than 17 inches of induced vertical break. His 89 mph cutter pairs velocity with over five inches of horizontal break—a rare combination—while his 84 mph sweeper generates 16 inches of sweep, closely mirroring Luis Severino’s (133 Stuff+ per FanGraphs).
Based on performance alone, RoboScout projects a 1.19 WHIP, 3.55 ERA and 26% strikeout rate at peak. Given his underlying arsenal traits, Gibson has a strong chance to reach those marks. Expect him to climb prospect lists in 2026, with a likely debut in Baltimore on the horizon.
Keyner Martinez, RHP, Giants
- FF (55%) 53
- SW (33%) 55
- CH (12%) 64
- Ball% 33%
Martinez has two above-average pitches—a 95 mph fastball and an 82 mph sweeper with 15 inches of horizontal break—plus a changeup that elicited whiffs and chases at a plus rate. He’s gained 1.5 mph of velocity since 2024, and his sweeper’s horizontal break is already plus among all minor leaguers. He also commands his arsenal well, suggesting the 20-year-old is poised to reach impressive heights in the next few years. He’s an arrow-up name to track in deep leagues.
Nate Payne, LHP, Marlins
- FF (42%) 58
- SW (25%) 65
- CB (17%) 60
- SL (9%) 52
- CH (7%) 53
- Ball% 43%
Payne’s arsenal is eye-catching even despite modest velocity. His 91 mph four-seamer has over 18 inches of IVB and a 30% whiff rate. His 79 mph sweeper has over 12 inches of sweep with a silly 58% whiff rate and a 29% chase rate. The curveball is ridiculous, too. It combines 16 inches of spike and 14 inches of sweep, strongly resembling Max Fried’s curveball with its two-plane movement and velocity combination.
The issue? His 43% ball percentage is well below-average, making the bullpen a plausible ultimate destination. Payne seems to command his fastball well enough, so he’ll need to focus on harnessing control of his secondaries. He’s an intriguing prospect in an organization with an ascending track record of recent pitching development.
Christian Zazueta, RHP, Dodgers
- FF (58%) 60
- CH (20%) 59
- SL (11%) 51
- CB (6%) 54
- SW (5%) 48
- Ball% 33%
Two weeks ago, we highlighted Zazueta as a name to track, and the performance-by-pitch-type reinforces his case. His 93 mph four-seamer is up 1 mph from 2024 with extremely flat plane. Zazueta’s combination of low release height, 6.5 feet of extension and 15 inches of tail led to a 32% whiff rate on the fastball (22% is average), which grades as plus. His 86 mph slider has cutter-like ride (+7” IVB), while his sweeper gets 12 inches of sweep. His primary secondary is the changeup, which earns better-than-plus grades for both whiff and chase rates.
Though technically a fastball/changeup pitcher, Zazueta isn’t simply befuddling lower-level hitters with offspeed they aren’t used to seeing. His secondary offerings have a lot of desirable ingredients, and he’s one of my favorite deep sleepers for 2026.
Duncan Davitt, RHP, White Sox
- FF (40%) 49
- SL (28%) 50
- SW (12%) 54
- CT (11%) 51
- CH (9%) 50
- Ball% 34%
At 25 years old and in Triple-A, Davitt definitely qualifies as underrated. Drafted in the 18th round by Tampa Bay in 2022 for $25,000, he never cracked a Rays Top 30 before being dealt to the White Sox with Curtis Mead in the Adrian Houser trade—a move made to avoid a Rule 5 decision.
As a looming 40-man addition, Davitt provides some intrigue with four pitches that grade out as average, while his 81 mph sweeper with 17 inches of horizontal break grades above-average. Combined with nearly seven feet of extension and a low slot, his five-pitch arsenal creates a funky look for hitters.
RoboScout projects Davitt as the epitome of a fringe back-of-the-rotation starter, pegging him for a 1.30 WHIP and 4.30 ERA based on his 2025 production. With his unique look and wide arsenal, however, Davitt could be an intriguing option who surprises in 2026 with major league success.
Sheng-En Lin, RHP, Reds
- FF (51%) 59
- SW (24%) 55
- CH (20%) 57
- Ball% 34%
The 19-year-old righthander impressed with a 4-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 30.1 innings at the complex, and another 16.2 innings for Low-A Daytona. His arsenal already features a plus fastball, two more above-average pitches and he throws them all for strikes.
Lin’s 91 mph four-seamer plays flat thanks to a low release height and -4.4° VAA, producing a 31% whiff rate. His 78 mph sweeper generated 44% whiffs, while his changeup gets 40% whiffs and chases with 10 mph of separation off the fastball. With an above-average ball percentage, it’s a matter of adding strength to his arsenal to actualize his potential as a back-of-the-rotation starter.
Small Sample Size, But Wowza
David Hagaman, RHP, Diamondbacks
- FF (46%) 53
- SL (26%) 58
- CH (19%) 57
- CB (9%) 72
- Ball%: 32%
The 22-year-old righthander was acquired from the Rangers in the Merrill Kelly deal after debuting this June following a 2024 internal brace procedure. His workload has been limited, but the 2025 data—and a likely Arizona Fall League stint—is extremely compelling.
With a low release height, seven feet of extension and a 94 mph heater, his fastball plays up with above-average chase rates. His 86 mph slider elicits 46% whiffs, while his two-plane curveball—a nasty weapon he’s easing back into use after surgery—produced over 60% whiffs. His changeup, with 15 inches of tail and more than 13 inches of separation off the fastball, also topped 40% whiffs and chases.
Hagaman struggled with walks at West Virginia, but his 32% ball percentage in 2025 was above-average, suggesting he can command his nasty arsenal. He’s a sleeper for 2026 and a pitcher who could open eyes at the AFL.
Sadbiel Delzine, RHP, Red Sox
- FF (55%) 56
- SL (30%) 58
- CB (15%) 74
It’s a tiny sample—just over 100 pitches across three DSL starts—but Delzine also looks pretty compelling. Seeing him on this list shouldn’t be too surprising after he popped up here and here. The 17-year-old Venezuelan, who signed for $500,000, sits 95 mph on his fastball, throwing it in the zone 70% of the time while still generating 42% chase when it misses. His 85 mph slider is also quite advanced and drew a 53% chase rate. Delzine also spins a 2,500-plus rpm curveball that features 14 inches of hellacious horizontal break.
Notably, none of his pitches carried a Ball% above 30%, rare for the DSL and rarer still for a 17-year-old, 6-foot-6, 200-pound arm. With a changeup next on the development checklist, Delzine’s arsenal already hints at dominance as he prepares to come stateside in 2026.
Owen Murphy, RHP, Braves
- FF (55%) 62
- SL (38%) 56
- CB (7%) 56
- Ball% 31%
Murphy broke out in the first half of 2024 before undergoing Tommy John surgery, returning for just 30 innings this season at age 21. His velocity remains below-average, with a four-seamer that barely kisses 91 mph, but the pitch is exceptionally flat and he added even more IVB in 2025, now over 20 inches. Despite the small sample (150 fastballs), the heater generated over 30% whiffs and 30% chases in High-A—outstanding marks for the pitch type. His 84 mph slider posted 40% whiffs and chases, while his curveball with big depth also induced frequent swings and misses.
With excellent command and unique fastball movement traits, it will be interesting to see how Murphy’s arsenal performs in the upper levels in 2026 at the age of 22.
Jesus Carrera, RHP, Astros
- FF (53%) 74
- CH (27%) 51
- SL (12%) 59
- Ball% 34%
I noted yesterday that the Astros have a hitting type.
In the hitters article I mentioned that the Astros have a hitting type. Well, they also have a type when it comes to pitches: super flat fastballs from a low release height. The 20-year-old Carrera fits the mold. Interestingly, he has above-average extension, whereas former Astros pitching prospects who meet the above criteria Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier both have far below-average extension. Carrera’s 88 mph fastball produced the third-highest whiff rate (46%) of any four-seamer thrown at least 250 times in 2025.
Carrera’s changeup is his primary secondary with over 12 inches of vertical separation and a 41% chase rate. His slider, although not particularly fast, does have 11 inches of horizontal sweep and got over 52% whiffs. At 5-foot-11, Carrera needs to obviously add strength and velocity, but the performance of his arsenal from a metrics perspective and has ability to command it makes him an interesting deep sleeper for 2026.
Don’t Forget About Me
Braxton Bragg, RHP, Orioles
- FF (33%) 63
- SI (22%) 45
- SW (18%) 59
- CT (14%) 55
- CH (14%) 56
- Ball% 33%
Bragg, 24, reached Double-A Chesapeake in 2025 before undergoing Tommy John surgery after 42.2 innings at the level (plus 16.1 at High-A Aberdeen). Even with the shortened season, he still finished as RoboScout’s 13th-ranked pitcher in Double-A. At peak, the model projects a 1.24 WHIP, 3.80 ERA, and 23% strikeout rate—essentially a midrotation starter.
Bragg throws strikes while twirling two plus pitches and two more above-average offering. The 95 mph four-seamer is exceptionally flat (-4.0 VAA) from a low slot, generating a 32% whiff rate and 34% chase rate, both grading plus to double-plus, with a 28% Ball%. His 81 mph sweeper carries 12 inches of horizontal break and produced 48% whiffs, while his 94 mph sinker gives hitters a completely different look with 18 inches of tail and a 39% chase rate (25% average).
Even if he misses most—or all—of 2026, Bragg’s arsenal is worth a stash.
Santiago Suarez, RHP, Rays
- FF (63%) 53
- SL (18%) 54
- CB (11%) 58
- Ball% 28%
Suarez was a popular name in 2024 before missing three months with triceps and shoulder tightness in 2025. He still managed 44.2 innings at High-A Bowling Green with a strong 23.4% K-BB rate, then closed the year with two Triple-A starts.
Suarez’s extremely low 28% ball rate stands out, and projects to a 5% MLB walk rate. His arsenal is quite compelling, too. Suarez’s 95 mph four-seamer is extremely flat from above-average extension, while his 85 mph slider shows cutterish traits. His curveball jumped in quality after adding 300 rpm and 3.5 inches of horizontal break from 2024, yielding high whiff and chase rates. Suarez also reduced his cutter usage (down to 6% at 86 mph) after it lost 3 mph velocity from 2024.
Suarez hasn’t shown any meaningful platoon splits in two years, though the reduced cutter velocity is something to monitor. He averaged 5.5 innings in his two Triple-A starts at the end of the year. As a 20-year-old in the upper minors, Suarez could log meaningful innings in the big leagues in 2026, though the Rays’ unorthodox rotation management creates some uncertainty around his ultimate role next year.
