Tyler Albanese, RHP, San Jose State

Albanese broke out in 2025 as one of the more interesting late-inning arms on the West Coast, and he carried his momentum into a strong showing in the Cape Cod League. The 6-foot-6, 237-pound righty delivered a 2.97 ERA with 56 strikeouts and 19 walks over 39.1 innings for San Jose State while collecting eight saves. He then posted a 2.45 ERA with 20 strikeouts and seven walks in 22 Cape innings, reinforcing the quality of his stuff in a wood bat environment.

Albanese’s release traits set the foundation. He was one of just 33 Division I pitchers with at least 100 pitches in front of Trackman to create more than seven feet of extension. He also worked with a relatively flat -5.0 degree attack angle. Those traits paired well with a low-to-mid-90s fastball that carried through the top of the zone and spun at an average of 2,413 rpm in Trackman games. The pitch generated a 29% miss rate and 34% chase rate, marks placing it well-above-average for a college fastball.

Albanese’s curveball was a legitimate swing-and-miss weapon. It showed two-plane action with roughly 10.5 inches of vertical drop and more than 16 inches of horizontal movement. He also manipulated the pitch by taking velocity off in the low 70s to create more vertical action. He supplemented it with a tighter slider that performed well as another breaking look.

The combination of extension, fastball shape and high-quality breaking balls gives Albanese clear draft appeal. With a large frame, strong movement traits and the ability to generate chase across multiple pitches, he enters 2026 as an arm with a chance to climb if he continues to sharpen his command and hold his shapes over a larger role.

Thomas Burns, RHP, Texas

Burns made a strong first impression in the SEC after transferring from Arizona State, finishing the year with a 3.71 ERA and 40 strikeouts to 16 walks over 26.2 innings. The line would have tightened even further if not for a single rough outing against Arkansas in early May in which he allowed five of his 11 earned runs in 1.1 innings. Over the rest of the season, he worked with one of the most explosive fastballs in the conference.

The 6-foot-3, 240-pound righty shows premium velocity. His fastball averaged 95.1 mph in Trackman settings, touched 100 and paired speed with 21.2 inches of induced vertical break. The pitch produced a 34% whiff rate and carried a -5.41 degree vertical approach angle, which is solid given his 6-foot-7 release height. 

Burns’ heater performed at an elite level when it cleared two key thresholds, as, at 95 mph or above with at least 20 inches of carry, it generated a 67% strike rate and a 57% whiff rate. Hitters recorded only one hit against the pitch when it met those conditions, which placed Burns in rare company.

He supported the fastball with a tight, mid-80s slider and a low-80s changeup. The changeup showed fade and late tumble with roughly a degree and a half of separation off the fastball, giving him a workable speed and movement contrast. Both secondaries flashed enough to suggest progression as he continued to gain feel.

Burns’ profile was built around the fastball, and the data pointed to a pitch that could anchor a high-leverage role at the next level. If he maintains the high-end characteristics that drove the miss rate and continues to sharpen his slider and changeup, he has a chance to establish himself as one of the country’s more formidable relief arms with early-round potential.

Ethan Kleinschmit, LHP, Oregon State

Kleinschmit emerged in 2025 as one of the premier No. 2 starters in the country and gave Oregon State a frontline pairing behind 2027 draft class star Dax Whitney. He logged a 3.56 ERA with 113 strikeouts and 36 walks over 91 innings and carries a 6-foot-3 frame that still offers room for physical growth. Performance and underlying measurements placed him on the cusp of the Top 100 entering his draft season with a profile built more on polish, feel and shape quality than raw velocity.

His fastball sat at 90.4 mph in Trackman games and reached 94, yet the pitch played with far more utility due to its movement characteristics. He averaged 19.3 inches of induced vertical break with steady armside run—a combination that helped him work above barrels despite average velocity. The attack angle trended flatter than average, and his extension was solid, which allowed him to create advantageous entry points at the top of the zone.

Kleinschmit’s offspeed mix separated him. His sweeper averaged 18.5 inches of horizontal break with a 34% miss rate and 30.2% chase rate in Trackman environments. The pitch had late action and paired cleanly with the fastball. 

His changeup appeared markedly less often than his fastball and sweeper but showed above-average fade, consistent tumble and nearly 2.5 degrees of separation relative to the heater. The shape and action gave him a legitimate third offering with real carryover against righthanded hitters.

Kleinschmit repeated his delivery, was generally around the zone and held his mix over longer outings. The combination of strike-throwing, shape traits and an offspeed foundation that consistently produced chase gave him clear Top 100 potential. If the fastball continues to firm as he adds strength to his frame, he projects as one of the more complete lefthanded starters in the class.

Brett Lanman, LHP, Abilene Christian

Lanman enters 2026 with a chance to follow the path set by former Abilene Christian righty Dominick Reid, who this past July became the program’s highest draft pick since 2000 after a breakout junior year. 

At 6-foot-5 and 235 pounds, Lanman showed that level of promise as a freshman when he delivered a 3.48 ERA with 79 strikeouts and 32 walks in 72.1 innings. His sophomore season, however, brought significant regression. He finished 2025 with a 6.25 ERA and 84 strikeouts to 34 walks in 72 innings before finding a partial reset on the Cape, where he managed a 3.60 ERA with 11 strikeouts and four walks in 10 innings.

The underlying data from 2025 still pointed to meaningful upside. His low-to-mid-90s fastball carried through the top of the zone with 19.4 inches of induced vertical break in Trackman settings, and he paired that movement with elite extension (about seven feet) and a -5.19 degree vertical approach angle. Those traits created a difficult entry point for hitters. The fastball produced a 23.6% whiff rate and a 23.2% chase rate, and it held its shape even when his command wavered, which kept him competitive despite the surface line.

Lanman supported the heater with a low-80s slider that showed two-plane tilt, a high-70s curveball with deeper vertical action and a seldom-used changeup that flashed late tumble. All three pitches had the raw shape to grow into reliable offerings.

The runway for advancement is clear. If Lanman translates his improved summer performance into more consistent strike-throwing and leverages his fastball traits more efficiently, he has the ingredients to push back toward early-round territory. The combination of size, extension and fastball metrics make him a pitcher to follow closely this spring.

Luke McNeillie, RHP, Florida

McNeillie enters 2026 as one of the more volatile yet intriguing arms in the class. He has a realistic chance to secure the Sunday role in a Florida rotation fronted by No. 1 overall 2026 pitching prospect Liam Peterson and 2027 top prospect Aidan King—a scenario that would give him the innings volume evaluators have wanted to see. 

His first two seasons showed meaningful progress. He lowered his ERA from 7.07 as a freshman to 4.82 in 2025 and struck out 72 with 24 walks over 52.1 innings, almost all of them in relief. His command backed up in a short Cape Cod League sample with eight walks in 12.2 innings, which kept the control question firmly in place heading into the spring.

When his delivery synced, McNeillie’s pure stuff was difficult to square. His fastball sat at 94 mph and touched 98 in Trackman environments with nearly 20 inches of induced vertical break and a -4.71 attack angle that played above average for his release slot. The pitch averaged 2,400 rpm and produced miss and chase rates around 25% in those settings. He paired it with a mid-to-high-80s slider that showed two-plane action, including roughly four inches of vertical bite and spin north of 2,600 rpm. His changeup carried real armside life, averaging about 15 inches of horizontal movement with roughly two degrees of separation from his heater.

The central variable was strike-throwing. McNeillie’s 10.4% walk rate in 2025 reflected the inconsistency that has defined his early career and could ultimately push him back into a bullpen role at Florida. That outcome would limit his ability to rise into the earlier rounds. If he holds a rotation job and shows stable fastball command for longer stretches, his raw stuff is strong enough to change the conversation entirely, especially with a projectable frame.

Ethan Norby, LHP, East Carolina

Norby established himself as one of the most advanced spin artists in college baseball. Few lefthanders showed a more distinct or reliable feel for manipulating the baseball, and his entire arsenal rested on that strength. Although undersized at 5-foot-9 and 200 pounds, he’s consistently produced, carrying a career 3.80 ERA with 182 strikeouts and 47 walks over 149.1 innings through two seasons at East Carolina.

Norby’s fastball sat in the low to mid 90s, and he paired that velocity with an unusual shape profile. The pitch averaged 13.5 inches of armside run, carried an average spin rate above 2,500 rpm in Trackman games and benefited from nearly 6.5 feet of extension. His 5-foot-1 release height helped him create a remarkably flat -4.19 degree attack angle, which contributed to a 26.4% whiff rate and a 27.4% chase rate. When he located the pitch particularly well, he reached close to 20 inches of run—a premium figure for a college lefty.

His sweeper functioned as his trademark offspeed pitch. Over a 290-pitch Trackman sample, it averaged 15.5 inches of horizontal break and spun above 3,000 rpm while producing a 48% whiff rate and 34% chase rate. His mid-80s changeup added another look with strong fade and almost 2.5 degrees of separation from the fastball which allowed him to neutralize right handed hitters without abandoning his strengths.

Norby’s feel for spin and his ability to command and manipulate multiple pitches makes him one of the more consistent lefthanders on the board. Entering his third year as a starter at East Carolina, he is well positioned to maintain that trajectory and has a clear path into the early rounds if the performance holds as expected.

Jack Radel, RHP, Notre Dame

Radel made steady gains over his first two seasons at Notre Dame, trimming his ERA from 4.58 to 3.58 while improving his strikeout rate from 16.7% to 20.8% and cutting his walk rate from 8.1% to 6.2%. He carried a heavier rotation workload in 2025 with 70.1 innings and showed enough refinement to put himself firmly on the draft radar.

The appeal lies in the underlying traits. A 6-foot-5, 210-pound righty with long levers, Radel delivered more than seven feet of extension—a premium marker that pushed his fastball on hitters earlier than the velocity alone would suggest. The pitch sat in the mid to high 90s in Trackman environments, and he paired that speed with quality shape, including an 18.2 inch induced vertical break average and a -4.96 degree vertical approach angle. Those characteristics gave the pitch the foundational attributes commonly seen in early round arms, even if the raw bat-missing numbers have not yet reached that tier.

Radel complemented the fastball with a sweepy slider that flashes lateral finish and a changeup with fade and tumble. The changeup showed roughly two degrees of separation from his fastball, giving him a legitimate third look and a pathway to more consistency against lefthanded hitters.

Even without the swing-and-miss totals that define many peers in the early rounds, Radel’s data profile fits comfortably within the top 200 and could climb higher if he continues to improve. The fastball metrics, extension and secondary traits give him more ceiling than his already-solid surface numbers might indicate.

Bo Rhudy, RHP, Tennessee

There is usually at least one pitcher each year whose draft case is built around a single elite offering, and Rhudy looks like an early candidate for that label. The 6-foot-4, 225-pound righty transferred from Kennesaw State to Tennessee after a strong sophomore year in which he logged a 3.16 ERA with 44 strikeouts and only five walks across 37 innings. He carried that momentum to the Cape Cod League, where he posted a 2.45 ERA with 12 strikeouts and two walks in 11 innings while saving five games in nine appearances.

Rhudy’s fastball is wicked. In Trackman settings, it averaged 90 mph with a peak of 93.3 yet played far beyond the velocity because of an unusual set of traits. The pitch generated 18.4 inches of induced vertical break with an average spin rate of 2,722 rpm and came from a low 5-foot-4 release height with a -4.27 degree vertical approach angle. That combination made his heater extremely difficult to pick up, and hitters chased it 38% of the time, which is well above average. The pitch functioned as a true outlier, one that created late carry and unexpected life at the top of the zone, considering its velocity range.

Across the 2025 college season and his Cape workload, Rhudy went to his fastball 88% of the time, a staggering usage rate that reflected how dominant the pitch was in both environments. He also showed a high-70s slider with enough bite to miss bats when he executed it, although the feel and consistency lagged behind the fastball.

Rhudy’s elite spin characteristics open the door for significant development. With his ability to impart that level of spin, it is easy to envision a professional staff broadening his offspeed mix and helping him build shapes that complement the fastball. 

If the velocity climbs and the secondary offerings take hold, he has a chance to move quickly. Rhudy is a name to track very closely heading into the spring. The raw material on his fastball alone places him firmly on the radar.

Cal Scolari, RHP, Oregon

Scolari entered the 2026 cycle with unfinished business. He ranked No. 247 on the final BA 500 in 2025 yet went undrafted despite showing promise at San Diego as he logged a 4.22 ERA with 77 strikeouts and 39 walks across 70.1 innings. He honored his transfer commitment to Oregon, where he is expected to compete for the Friday role in what should be his final college season.

The appeal lies in how Scolari’s raw traits have come back online after a lengthy recovery from Tommy John surgery. A 6-foot-4 righthander, he sat 91-93 mph and reached 96 in 2025. The fastball showed life at the top of the zone with an 18-inch induced vertical break average, nearly 2,400 rpm spin, 6.35 feet of extension and a relatively flat -5 degree attack angle. The combination allowed the pitch to play above its velocity band when he located it.

Both secondaries carried viability against righties and lefties. His low-80s slider showed two-plane tilt with 7.2 inches of horizontal break, and his firmer changeup offered fade and tumble with roughly a degree and a half of separation from the fastball. There is room for the changeup separation to grow, but the underlying movement cues give him a workable third pitch.

Oregon coach Mark Wasikowski expressed real optimism this fall, telling Baseball America that Scolari has continued to show improvement in both velocity and pitch shape definition. If the command tightens and the fastball regains more consistent shape after a full healthy offseason, Scolari has a legitimate chance to pitch his way into the early rounds.

Cole Tryba, LHP, UC Santa Barbara

Tryba enters 2026 as one of the more reliable profiles on the West Coast after two highly effective seasons at UC Santa Barbara and a dominant summer on the Cape. He posted a 3.64 ERA with 65 strikeouts and 14 walks across 47 innings in 2024, then returned from a brief injury absence in 2025 to deliver a 3.48 ERA with 46 strikeouts and 12 walks in 31 innings. His Cape League summer with Orleans reaffirmed the quality of his arsenal. He logged a 1.07 ERA with 28 strikeouts and seven walks in 25.1 innings and looked like one of the most polished bullpen arms in the league.

Tryba’s operation carried more violence than his size suggested. His fastball averaged a five-foot release height with just over six feet of extension—a combination that created a challenging approach angle even without premium velocity. The pitch sat in the low 90s and showed heavy armside life, averaging 17 inches of run in Trackman settings. It held its plane well enough to draw consistent early-count swings and positioned hitters to protect against two secondaries that both project as comfortably above average.

His upper-70s-to-low-80s sweeper was his separator. It averaged roughly 15 inches of horizontal break. The changeup showed similar promise with nearly 18 inches of fade in Trackman environments, an outrageous metric for a college lefty and one that helped it play as a legitimate weapon against righties.

Tryba’s combination of a deceptive release, two miss-generating secondaries and a consistent strike-throwing track record gave him the look of a lefty who could move quickly in pro ball. He profiles as one of the more complete arms in the class with a chance to climb if the fastball ticks up or holds velocity more consistently over longer outings. He’s expected to try his hand at starting in the spring.

Body & Delivery

Rojas has an athletic frame at 6-foot-4, 190 pounds with wide shoulders and a lean build throughout his frame that portends plenty of strength and mass coming in the future. He’s an excellent mover on the mound and works with a quick delivery. He typically sets up in the middle or the first base side of the rubber. 

Rojas throws from a lower three-quarters slot that will drop down to a fully sidearm look at times. He whips his left arm to the plate with some of the best pure arm speed in the class. His arm can be deceptively fast at times because he doesn’t throw with a significant amount of effort, though he does have a slight crossfire landing and falls off to the third base side in his finish.

While he might not always land in the ideal fielding position, Rojas’ athleticism is clear in situations where he needs to bounce off the mound and react to a rolled over ground ball with quick, deft footwork and impressive reactions. There’s some depth in his arm action, but not an extreme amount, and overall his delivery is simple and fluid enough that he should be able to repeat it consistently and throw quality strikes. 

Fastball

The fastball is currently the main event for Rojas. As you might expect given his tremendous arm speed, he’s able to generate a tremendous amount of velocity. With a fastball that’s already been up to 98 mph, Rojas is in an elite group of prep southpaws who have thrown a fastball in the upper 90s at this stage.

In reporting how rare Jack Bauer’s 100-mph fastball velocity is in the 2025 draft cycle, we found just six high school lefthanders from the 2018-2024 draft classes who had reached at least 98 mph. Without even digging further into fastball shape or command, Rojas is among an elite group of southpaws: 

• 2025, Jack Bauer — 102 mph
• 2022, Brandon Barriera — 99 mph
• 2024, Cam Caminiti —98 mph
• 2023, Cam Johnson — 98 mph
• 2023, Alexander Clemmey — 98 mph
• 2022, Noah Schultz — 98 mph
• 2026, Gio Rojas — 98 mph

Like most of the fastballs on this list, Rojas’ projects as an easy 70-grade offering. He works with a four-seam grip and will make adjustments with the width of his fingers and the pressure in order to elicit more ride, cut or tail. It’s natural shape tends to be more of a sink and ride pitch that aligns with his lower arm slot. That shape might cut down on his ability to generate whiffs against more advanced hitters at the top of the zone, but the power and movement should always allow it to be a highly effective pitch and potential groundball-heavy offering. 

Rojas has added nearly four ticks of velocity on average from the 2024 summer to the 2025 summer. Across nine Synergy-logged games in 2025, he averaged 94.4 mph with the pitch and at the East Coast Pro showcase he touched 98 mph five different times in one outing.

He pitches heavily off the fastball now, and has more feel for the heater than the rest of his arsenal. Batters hit just .175/.294/.193 against it with a 34% miss rate and a 17.4% swinging strike rate. 

Slider

In addition to a potential 70-grade fastball, Rojas has a slider that could become a plus offering. Like the fastball, the slider is a pitch that has added velocity over the last few seasons and now consistently sits in the low 80s. 

It’s a big, sweeping breaking ball with high spin rates in the 2,600-2,800 rpm range and lots of movement to his glove side. In our nine-game Synergy sample from 2025, Rojas threw the slider 17% of the time against righties and 31% of the time against lefties. It accounted for just under a quarter of his usage overall. 

The pitch is a clear swing-and-miss and chase offering for lefties, who have to combat with the pitch moving away from them in addition to the low angle Rojas creates on the mound. But against high school hitters, Rojas can use the slider to miss barrels of hitters on either side of the plate. Overall he used the pitch to generate a 62% miss rate but just a 15.1% swinging strike rate.

When Rojas is able to put the slider in the zone and force hitters to contend with it, it’s a clear weapon. Getting the pitch over the plate with more frequency will be a key development goal with him moving forward. His slider is currently his least reliable in-zone offering and he threw it for strikes just 43% of the time. 

While Rojas does tend to throw the pitch in the 80-84 mph range with sweeper shape, he did flash a harder variant at the ECP event, in the 85-87 mph range. At that velocity, Rojas’ slider looked more like a typical cutter, and adding a shorter, tighter breaking ball could be a useful piece for him in the future; both to attack righties with more frequency and give him a non-fastball that finds the zone a bit more often. 

Changeup

Rojas rounds out his repertoire with an 80-85 changeup that currently sits as a clear No. 3 offering for him. He uses a circle-change grip and almost exclusively throws it in opposite-hand matchups—leaving the fastball/slider combo as the complete attack plan against lefties.

While Rojas does have a decent feel to land the changeup for strikes, it is currently a pitch that gives lower-level hitters a chance to catch up to him more than anything. While it’s an extremely small sample of just 24 pitches, batters hit .714/.714/.1.000 against his changeup in the 2025 Synergy-logged sample we have available. It generated just a 20% miss rate and 8.3% swinging strike rate. 

While Rojas will at times have nearly a 15-mph velocity gap between the changeup and fastball, he gets to that difference often by visibly slowing his arm speed, which advanced hitters will be able to pick up on. The pitch doesn’t have an exceptional movement profile at the moment, but some scouts think there’s enough here for him to get to an average changeup that will be enough to keep hitters off-balance and help him work deeper into games.

Control & Command

Rojas established a reputation as an advanced strike-thrower as an underclassman, but he was a bit more scattered than many scouts expected to see in 2025. Like almost all high school pitchers, his fastball control is better than his fastball command, and he will need to sharpen that area of his game to maximize the effectiveness of the pitch. 

At his East Coast Pro outing, for example, Rojas left his fastball over the middle of the plate in neutral or pitcher’s counts too frequently and allowed a handful of hits because of it. He’ll also need to be more consistent with the release of his slider and challenge hitters with the pitch more frequently in and around the strike zone. He tends to miss with the breaking ball down and to his glove side. 

It’s possible that Rojas is one of those pitchers whose arm speed is so fast that it’s difficult for him to repeat his release point with elite consistency, making him more of a control over command pitcher with power stuff. Despite all this, his low-maintenance operation and athleticism should give him every opportunity to develop solid-average control in the future.

In Summary

Rojas is a power-armed lefthander with some of the best pure arm talent in the class that gives him obvious upside potential. That upside comes with some clear question marks—mostly the development of a third pitch and improved command—and a timeline that many teams might not want to stomach in the first round.

High school pitchers can do more than high school hitters in their spring draft seasons to influence their draft stock, and the same will be true of Rojas in 2026. A strong spring that sees him improve his weaknesses could vault him into the top-half of the first round, while a failure to do so—or regression in other areas—could see him fall further into a deep and strong high school pitching demographic. 

Rojas stacks up nicely with some of the best high school lefties we’ve seen in recent years. He belongs in the same sort of tier as players like Brandon Barriera (23rd overall), Noah Schultz (26th) and Robby Snelling (39th) from the 2022 class; Thomas White (35th) in the 2023 class; Cam Caminiti (24th) and Kash Mayfield (25th) in the 2024 class; and Kruz Schoolcraft (25th) in the 2025 class.

A comparison to Barriera makes a lot of sense in some ways: both are lightning-armed South Florida lefties with exceptional fastball velocity to go with high-spin sliders as their primary off-speeds—though Rojas has a taller, leaner and more projectable frame at the same stage.  

Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida

• 2026 Draft Ranking: No. 4

Peterson enters the spring as the most complete data-driven pitching evaluation in the class, and the intrigue begins before examining a single pitch.

Peterson’s delivery is uniquely vertical. Among Top 100 pitchers, he posted the third-highest average release height in 2025 and the highest among righties, trailing only lefties you’ll find in the story below: Trey Beard (Florida State) and Cole Carlon ( Arizona State). Peterson’s operation became even steeper this fall as added lower-half strength allowed him to stride more efficiently, pairing that elevation with roughly average extension. The combination of height and reach creates an unusual entry angle that separates Peterson from typical collegiate arms.

Peterson’s pitch mix is equally distinctive. He owns excellent feel for spin across his arsenal, a trait that shapes his mix. His four-seam fastball averaged 2,420 rpm last season with 21 inches of induced vertical break and natural armside run, giving it real swing-and-miss carry. The vertical approach angle itself is modest due to the steep release, but he generates nearly two degrees of separation between his fastball and changeup. The changeup features both fade and tumble, and the separation, in action, mirrors the visual separation created by his slot.

Both breaking balls grade out cleanly in the data. His slider and curveball each show plus spin characteristics, and the consistency of his axis manipulation reinforces the broader observation that his spin proficiency is not tied to one grip or shape. 

The addition of a running two-seam fastball this offseason gives Peterson a fifth differentiated offering and more flexibility in fastball usage.

Between the operation, verticality, spin traits and completeness of his mix, Peterson brings one of the deepest data foundations of any recent college pitcher. The industry views him as the early favorite to be the first arm selected because the metrics support every part of the profile.

Cameron Flukey, RHP, Coastal Carolina

• 2026 Draft Ranking: No. 10

Flukey cracked the top 10 in our most recent draft update after evaluators across the country made it clear the rankings gap between him and Peterson needed to shrink. He was a foundational piece of Coastal Carolina’s 2025 staff, helping pitch the Chanticleers to Omaha while logging 101.2 innings, a 3.19 ERA, a 28.5% strikeout rate and a 5.8% walk rate across 18 appearances. At 6-foot-6 and 210 pounds, he presents a long, lean look on the mound with a high leg lift, deep arm action and a three-quarters slot.

Flukey’s fastball is the backbone of his profile. He averaged 95 mph and touched 98 while his movement data drove substantial industry interest. The pitch averaged 20.3 inches of induced vertical break and has a well-above-average approach angle that plays well at the top of the zone. His extension is solid, but not extreme, given his height, and he does not rely on release height to manipulate shape, but the consistency of his fastball axis and command made it one of the more reliable heaters in the country. The dramatic drop in walk rate from his freshman year reflects meaningful improvement in fastball location.

Flukey supports that foundation with three usable secondaries. His mid-70s curveball shows true 12-to-6 action, while his mid-80s gyro slider is his go-to breaking option against righthanded hitters. Both offerings benefit from his ability to generate late movement from a consistent release window. Flukey also mixes a mid-80s changeup to lefties, a pitch he deploys sparingly but effectively to reduce predictability.

With a fastball that carries, improved command and a four-pitch mix that works against both sides, Flukey possesses the ingredients needed to be the top pitcher in the class. The movement traits, strike-throwing gains and physical projection explain why clubs increasingly view him as one of the top arms available for 2026.

Jackson Flora, RHP, UC Santa Barbara

• 2026 Draft Ranking: No. 17

Flora is the next arm to emerge from UCSB coach Andrew Checketts’ pitching factory, a lineage that recently produced multi-million dollar signee Tyler Bremner and has consistently turned out some of the most data-forward pitchers on the West Coast. 

While early draft attention has centered heavily on Peterson and Flukey, Flora belongs firmly in that same conversation. His data indicates the tools of an arm who could be the first pitcher selected in July if the spring performance matches the metrics.

The foundation of Flora’s arsenal is his fastball, and it’s a standout offering thanks to its movement profile and sheer power. The pitch is explosive, regularly touching triple digits with huge carry that spikes into the low 20s of induced vertical break to make it one of the most high-octane heaters in the class. UCSB refined the pitch this fall to eliminate occasional dead-zone characteristics. Early feedback suggests it has even more carry and a cleaner movement profile now—an impressive development given how strong the pitch already graded last year. Flora’s -4.6-degree vertical approach angle is strong out of a low three-quarters slot and could tighten further following the fastball adjustments.

Flora’s feel for spin is advanced. He routinely snaps off pitches that exceed 2,700 rpm, and that spin expresses itself in multiple breaking shapes. His sweepy slider, the headliner of his mix, and a tighter slider both show plus movement, and Checketts added a curveball this offseason to sit neatly between those two shapes. 

Flora also began throwing a kick changeup this fall. While it does not yet have in-game Trackman readings, Checketts told Baseball America the pitch has looked outstanding in scrimmages and separates cleanly from the fastball.

Flora gets solid extension, which helps amplify the carry and angle characteristics of his arsenal. With true velocity, elite carry, multiple high-spin breaking balls and emerging changeup separation, Flora’s data package sits comfortably alongside the top arms in the class. If the refinements hold in 2026, he has every tool to pitch himself into discussion for first arm off the board come July.

Joey Volchko, RHP, Georgia

• 2026 Draft Ranking: No. 25

Volchko enters 2026 with premium raw material. At 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds, he has long shown the frame and arm strength associated with a frontline evaluation, yet his first two seasons at Stanford revealed how much separation existed between the tools and the execution. Over 113 innings, he logged a 5.89 ERA with a 20.6% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate—outcomes tied to difficulty repeating his delivery and producing competitive strikes. The inconsistency led him to seek a reset.

He found that at Georgia with Wes Johnson, a coach known for structured pitch design work and individualized development. The goal for Volchko was straightforward: Consolidate a powerful but erratic mix into something with more predictable shapes, steadier command and a delivery that holds from inning to inning.

Volchko arrived in Athens with a 95 mph fastball that touched 99 and showed natural cut. He paired it with a low-90s slider with real bite, a mid-80s power curveball, a low-90s cutter and a low-90s changeup. He’s also brought exceptional feel for spin. His breaking pitches regularly operate in the upper 2000s and can reach 3000 rpm, giving him the foundation to manipulate shape and create multiple looks off similar cues. Georgia worked to tighten the four-seam fastball by creating more carry at the top of the zone without losing velocity. They added a high-80s sweeper to diversify his breaking shapes and introduced a true changeup to create cleaner separation across his velocity bands.

Strength and direction work lowered Volchko’s arm slot by 3-4 inches and was intended to correct the below-average approach angle on his cut-ride fastball while improving consistency of release. The adjustments were aimed at giving him a fastball that plays truer at the top of the zone and allowing his high spin secondaries to work in more defined lanes.

The power in the arsenal has never been the question. The determining factor is whether the strike-throwing stabilizes and the movement profiles hold their new form. If those gains carry into the spring, Volchko has the ingredients to push into the upper tier of the 2026 class.

Gabe Gaeckle, RHP, Arkansas

• 2026 Draft Ranking: 54

Gaeckle arrived at Arkansas with a reputation for rare arm speed and pure stuff. His first two seasons have reinforced that evaluation. Across 114 innings, Gaeckle has produced a 3.63 ERA with a 30.7% strikeout rate, showing the ability to miss bats in volume even as the delivery and strike-throwing remain inconsistent. 

At roughly 6 feet and 190 pounds, Gaeckle attacks with a drop-and-drive operation from a high three-quarters slot and creates surprising force for his size. The fastball sits in the mid 90s and has reached 99 mph at peak with ride that plays well at the top of the zone.

Gaeckle’s pitch characteristics behind that heater help explain the bat-missing ability. His release height is low for a righty with his velocity, and the flatter attack angle he generates pairs cleanly with the carry. That combination gives hitters a difficult look when he accesses the top of the zone. 

Gaeckle’s slider is his most advanced secondary offering, as it averaged 2,682 rpm in front of Trackman in 2025 and produced a 41% whiff rate with a 36% chase rate. The pitch has sharp action and shows late depth when he stays on top of it. His changeup offers a different challenge. The pitch features significant run and creates nearly two degrees of separation from his fastball while generating a 47% whiff rate in his Trackman sample, giving him a legitimate weapon against lefties.

Gaeckle also mixes a power curveball and maintains enough feel to spin both breaking shapes. The question centers on efficiency. His strike-throwing has been below average and the effort in the delivery introduces volatility from outing to outing. 

The raw ingredients are clear and the pitch data supports a high-octane pitch mix. If Gaeckle can stabilize the command and hold his shapes more consistently, he has the arsenal to factor prominently in the 2026 class.

Cole Carlon, LHP, Arizona State

• 2026 Draft Ranking: No. 55

Carlon has been one of the more significant year-over-year risers in the class after transforming himself from a low-leverage reliever in 2024 into one of the top strikeout arms in college baseball last spring. His sophomore season produced a 3.33 ERA with a 38.7% strikeout rate across 54 innings, good a top-five mark nationally among pitchers with at least 50 innings. At 6-foot-5 and 230 pounds, he presents a large, downhill look on the mound and works primarily off a fastball and gyro slider.

Carlon’s release height is among the highest in the Top 100, trailing only Florida State’s Trey Beard (see below). That vantage point helps create angle even though his extension is modest. The fastball averaged 94 mph in 2025, reaching 98 and generating sufficient ride to stay above barrels despite the steeper release. The pitch plays best when elevated and has enough life to avoid the dead-zone look that can accompany a tall lefty without elite extension.

The slider is Carlon’s defining pitch. It operates in the mid 80s with a true gyro profile, and he leaned on it heavily, throwing it close to half the time. Hitters managed a 56% miss rate against it and batted .163, making it one of the most effective breaking balls in the country on a rate basis. The shape is firm, late and consistent, which explains the reliance. Carlon also has a slower curveball and a mid-80s changeup, but he deploys both sparingly, and neither has yet shown the predictability or depth required for a full starter’s mix.

For Carlon to move from high-octane relief arm to viable rotation piece, he will need more breadth in the arsenal. The fastball and slider form a powerful foundation, and the delivery and release point give him a look that many lefties cannot replicate. The next step is adding a secondary he can land and trust early in counts, which would allow his two plus weapons to hold their performance deeper into outings.

Trey Beard, LHP, Florida State

• 2026 Draft Ranking: No. 75

Beard was one of the most effective starters in the country last spring, and his data places him among the most unique arms in the 2026 class. He delivered a 3.14 ERA across 16 appearances with 118 strikeouts in 86 innings, good for a 34.4% strikeout rate and one of the highest bat-missing outputs in Division I. Now at Florida State, the lefthander brings an operation and release profile few college pitchers can match.

Beard’s delivery works from a straight-over-the-top slot and produces a 6-foot-9 release point, which is the highest among all Top 100 pitchers. That angle is especially unusual for a lefty and creates a visual challenge that hitters rarely see. His fastball sits in the low 90s, yet the pitch plays significantly firmer due to the combination of carry and entry angle. Beard averaged 20.8 inches of induced vertical break, a standout measure for a pitcher whose slot would typically create a steeper plane. Hitters struggled to pick it up, whiffing at a 28% rate in Trackman games with a 35% chase rate.

Beard’s changeup is the separator. He maintains full arm speed and generates roughly 2.5 degrees of separation off the fastball. The pitch produced a 46% whiff rate with late tumble and has the characteristics of a true plus offering. It is a difficult change of pace for hitters because the slot and arm speed disguise it until late. 

He complements it with a mid-70s curveball that shows depth and downward action and a distinct slider in the upper 70s with more lateral movement than the curve.

Beard’s arsenal is unconventional but highly effective. The missing ingredient is velocity, yet the pitch shapes, deception and release traits create a package that grades out as one of the most intriguing lefthanded profiles in the class. If the velocity climbs even marginally in 2026, Beard has a chance to pitch himself into a much higher tier.

Ricky Ojeda, LHP, UC Irvine

• 2026 Draft Rankings: No. 82

Ojeda has been one of the most relied-upon relievers on the West Coast since he arrived at UC Irvine. Across two seasons, he has logged 118 innings over 54 appearances with a 3.51 ERA and a 31.3% strikeout rate, operating almost exclusively in leverage situations for the Anteaters. His 2025 workload continued into the summer, as he dominated in the Cape Cod League and for Team USA, striking out 20 in 10 scoreless innings across the two stops.

Ojeda is undersized at roughly 5-foot-11 and 185 pounds, yet his fastball is one of the most deceptive offerings in the class. The pitch comes out with carry and a flat approach angle that plays at the top of the zone, and he has touched 96 mph with more consistent low-90s velocity this fall. He generated the highest fastball whiff rate in Trackman environments among Top 100 college pitcher—a data point that reflects how well the shape and angle work together despite modest physical stature. The heater forms the core of his attack, and he leans on it heavily because it continues to generate misses even when hitters know it is coming.

Ojeda has the ability to manipulate spin off the same release. He throws a soft curveball in the low 70s with defined shape and a harder slider around 80 that shows later action. Both pitches serve primarily as change-of-pace looks off the fastball window. He also mixes a split changeup near 80 mph with tumbling life that gives him a neutralizer against righthanded hitters. His strikethrowing has held at an adequate level for two seasons, and the delivery is repeatable enough that starting is not out of the question even though his usage has been almost entirely in relief.

UC Irvine plans to give Ojeda a shot at its Friday night role in 2026. If the fastball shape holds over longer outings and the secondary consistency improves, he has the pitch characteristics to move well up draft boards in the spring.

Aidan Knaak, RHP, Clemson

• 2026 Draft Ranking: No. 85

Knaak has been a steady presence in Clemson’s rotation for two seasons and has already handled one of the heavier workloads in the ACC. He was dominant as a freshman with a 3.35 ERA and 108 strikeouts in 83.1 innings, then followed with a 4.18 mark and 110 strikeouts over 90.1 innings in 2025. The strike-throwing has remained consistent, and the pitch usage reflects a clear understanding of how his arsenal works.

His fastball grades out closer to average in pure quality. The pitch shows solid carry with a more neutral approach angle and does not generate the type of whiff volume seen from the upper tier of fastballs in the class. It functions more as a tone setter than a bat-misser. The shape, however, creates ideal contrast for his changeup, which is the defining pitch in his mix. 

Knaak produces roughly three degrees of separation between his fastball and changeup, and the offspeed comes with late fade and tumble. He uses the pitch with advanced feel, and it generated a 50% whiff rate and 36% chase rate in Trackman games. It is one of the most reliable changeups in the class because he locates it with intent and maintains arm speed.

Knaak also mixes a curveball and a slider, though both sit behind the changeup in consistency and shape. Each pitch flashes utility, but neither has yet developed into a true third offering that can be relied on in leverage counts. Continued progress in one of those offspeeds will be important for his long-term profile given how changeup-centric the current mix is.

The delivery holds up, the strike-throwing is stable and the changeup is a legitimate separator. If Knaak can firm up one of the breaking balls, he has the potential to make a sizable jump in 2026 because the foundation built around the changeup is already in place.

Ryan Marohn, LHP, NC State

• 2026 Draft Ranking: No. 93

Marohn, who was added to our 2026 Top 100 in October, pairs one of the cleanest strike-throwing records in the class with a well-sequenced four-pitch mix. At 6-foot-2 and 185 pound, he works from a three-quarters slot with a delivery that repeats and allows him to attack the zone. 

His low-90s fastball has solid carry and generated a 31% chase rate and a 22% whiff rate despite modest velocity. The offering is helped by the angles he creates even without standout extension.

Marohn supports the heater with three viable swing-and-miss secondaries. His low-80s changeup shows fade and tumble and produced a 47% chase rate in Trackman games. His upper-70s curveball has depth and created a 37% miss rate, while his mid-80s slider flashes lateral action. 

The mix is balanced and the strike-throwing is already in place. Marohn may not have the premium velocity of the top arms in the class, but he sequences cleanly, keeps all of his pitches in the zone and misses enough bats to profile as a legitimate starter.

Impressive Top 15 Risers

Cameron Flukey, RHP, Coastal Carolina

• BA Draft Rank: 10

Flukey leapt over three high school pitchers in our most recent draft update, going from No. 21 overall to No. 10. He now sits as the No. 2 arm in the class, behind only Florida righthander Liam Peterson. 

Flukey’s ascension was less about anything specific he did this summer, and more an attempt to get him more accurately positioned on our board based on scout feedback. He’s viewed much closer to Peterson than our previous ranking would have suggested, and there are scouts who believe he has a chance to become the SP1 in this class at some point next spring.

This fall, Coastal Carolina has given Flukey a light workload after he logged 101.2 innings in the spring. But even without significant changes, he checks plenty of the boxes teams are looking for in a college starter among the first 15 picks, as he’s got a great pitcher’s frame at 6-foot-6, 210 pounds, he throws a 95 mph fastball that has been up to 98, he has a complete mix of quality secondaries and he also took a big step forward with his control, going from a 10.9% walk rate in 2024 to a 5.8% in 2025.

Flukey’s fastball command, in particular, could be a separator for him in this class. He threw his fastball for strikes 68% of the time as a freshman in 2024, then upped it to an exceptional 74% this spring. While Flukey’s release point, attack angle and extension are all reasonably modest figures, he grades out well in terms of fastball velocity, command and riding life. He averaged more than 20 inches of induced vertical break with the pitch in each of his two seasons with Coastal.

Blake Bowen, OF, JSerra Catholic HS, San Juan Capistrano, Calif.

• BA Draft Rank: 15

We’ve written positively about Bowen for months now (see here and here). That’s generally what happens when a high-level prospect repeatedly turns in some of the best performances. While he was consistently referenced as one of the most significant up-arrow players in the class this summer, it’s worth highlighting some of the numbers he put up.

Bowen played at many of the top showcases and tournaments throughout the 2025 summer and fall seasons, and we have 38 games of Synergy data and video from his play this year. That doesn’t represent everything he did this year, but it’s a large chunk of production from June through October and a big sample to work with for a high school player. 

In the sample, he hit .344/.436/.516 with three home runs, a triple, five doubles, 22 strikeouts and 11 walks. That’s good for a 20% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate against some of the best pitching in the class.

Bowen’s home run power came exclusively to the pull side in this sample of games, but he also used the opposite field for a handful of extra-base hits. Overall, Bowen managed a 76% contact rate and a 25% chase rate, which are the two areas scouts will want to see him improve on next spring and moving forward. 

Here’s a look at Bowen’s production against various pitch types:

• Vs. fastballs: .945 OPS, 80% contact rate, 26% chase rate
• Vs. breaking balls: 1.068 OPS, 73% contact rate, 23% chase rate
• Vs. off-speed: .522 OPS, 50% contact rate, 21% chase rate
• Vs. pitches 90+ mph: 1.152 OPS, 78% contact rate, 29% chase rate

Showing more contact ability vs. sliders and changeups will be a point of emphasis for Bowen this spring. Generally sharpening his plate skills and approach could further elevate him up the board.

Bowen has been critiqued in the past for having an overly-aggressive approach. He likes to swing, and he has expanded the zone with a high frequency as an underclassman. His strides in both areas in 2025—and the increased quality contact that came from those improvements—were key developments for his up-the-board-movement. As of now, he’s still not an elite contact hitter or elite manager of the strike zone. He’ll have a better opportunity to prove himself in both those areas next spring while playing against some of the best competition in the country in Southern California.

Overall, Bowen remains one of the more exciting hit/power threats in the class—with a big league physique and real speed to go with it—but he is far from a finished product offensively.

The Up-Arrow Prep Pitching Quartet

One of the strengths of the 2026 class is the depth of prep pitching. Each of the four high school pitchers mentioned below moved up at least 25 spots in our latest draft update. As a result, we now have eight prep pitchers ranked inside the top 40. 

That could be bad news for the industry at large, as most teams either steer away from high school pitching entirely or would prefer to draft those players later and pay them overslot deals. Below are the number of high school pitchers drafted and signed among the first 40 picks in each of the last 10 drafts:

• 2025: 2
• 2024: 4
• 2023: 4
• 2022: 6
• 2021: 6
• 2020: 4
• 2019: 5
• 2018: 6
• 2017: 7
• 2016: 8

Will the talent distribution of this year’s class force teams to draft more like the 2016-2018 drafts? Or will teams continue to shy away from that profile with their first and second picks? This year’s pitching crop could be as deep as the vaunted 2018 high school pitching class. Depending on how the college hitters and pitchers pan out next spring, high-upside arms like those in the quartet below could be hard to pass on, first-round pick or not.

Carson Bolemon, LHP, Southside Christian HS, Simpsonville, S.C.

• BA Draft Rank: 19

Bolemon might be the most polished strike-thrower in the class. This summer, he threw each of his three primary pitches—fastball, slider and curveball—for strikes at a 67% rate or better. Both the slider and curveball eclipsed the 70% mark, which is a rare figure to see for a prep pitcher. 

Logan Schmidt, LHP, Ganesha HS, Pomona, Calif.

• BA Draft Rank: 23

Schmidt has earned comparisons to Braves 2024 first-rounder Cam Caminiti. Caminiti reclassified to be one of the youngest players in the 2024 class. He now ranks as the Braves’ top overall prospect and should earn Top 100 Prospect consideration this offseason.

Schmidt reclassified from the 2027 class, is now one of the youngest players in the 2026 class and will be 17 on draft day. He has a fastball up to 97 mph, and his breaking ball is more advanced now than Caminiti’s was at the same time.

Jensen Hirschkorn, RHP, Kingsburg (Calif.) HS

• BA Draft Rank: 24

Hirschkorn’s 77-spot jump made him the single-biggest riser in our October update. He had a Dasan Hill-esque summer with a lights-out Area Code Games performance that made him a slam dunk first-round name for many scouts. And he’s not too far off for those who aren’t quite that bullish, either.

The 17-year-old is the tallest prep pitcher ranked in the first round at 6-foot-7, and he has a swing-and-miss arsenal across the board with a fastball up to 96 mph, a slider around 80 and a changeup in the mid 80s. He generated at least a 41% miss rate with each pitch this summer in five Synergy-logged games and had a 49% miss rate overall.

Joseph Contreras, RHP, Blessed Trinity Catholic HS, Roswell, Ga.

• BA Draft Rank: 31

Contreras is one of the best candidates in this class to continue the resurgence of the splitter—or in the case of the Contreras family, the forkball. The son of Jose Contreras, who pitched 11 big league seasons and used the fork regularly, Joseph learned the pitch from his father and throws it in the mid 70s with hard tumbling action. He also has a more typical changeup in the low 80s with fading life, and he has pushed his fastball up to 98 mph. Synergy data we have available lumps many of Contreras’ forkballs in with his changeup, but between both pitch labels, batters hit just .040/.077/.080 against it with a ridiculous 74% miss rate.

A Trio Of Rising Hitters

Eric Booth Jr., OF, Oak Grove HS, Hattiesburg, Miss.

• BA Draft Rank: 46

Can we finally put to bed the Mississippi high school hitter stigma? Perhaps it’s already behind us. JoJo Parker (2025) was just drafted eighth overall. Konnor Griffin (2024) is the top overall prospect in baseball. Cooper Pratt (2023) is looking like a sixth-round steal. There are multiple high school hitters from Mississippi in the 2026 class with first-round upside, and Booth is trending in the right direction.

Booth was slotted in the third round (No. 88) on our pre-summer ranking. In our October update, he jumped into the second round (No. 46). It would be hard for me to believe there aren’t scouts and teams who have him higher than that and would be happy to take him in the first round.

Booth has an extremely exciting power/speed combination with natural contact skills that are difficult to teach. Pair those traits and tools with a swing that is quite unorthodox, and it’s not hard to imagine player development groups around the league champing at the bit to get him in their system to see if they can unlock even more potential.  

Will Brick, C, Christian Brothers HS, Memphis

• BA Draft Rank: 47

Brick is an up-arrow player only in the sense that he wasn’t on the 2026 draft radar at all in our pre-summer update. At that point, he was a member of the 2027 class, but he became the most recent reclassification when he announced his intentions to join the 2026 group in mid October. As soon as he announced his decision, Brick became the top high school catcher in the class, topping Pennsylvania catcher Andrew Costello (No. 62). They are now the only two prep catchers to rank in the top 100.

Brick could be one of the most polarizing players in the class because of his reclassification and position. Like with high school pitchers, high school catchers are a risky demographic. On top of that, most scouts weren’t spending time bearing down on Brick this summer because, at the time, he was 2027-eligible.

That doesn’t mean teams can’t, or won’t, do the work to draft him in an aggressive position if he proves worthwhile. Steele Hall was just drafted ninth overall despite reclassifying from 2026 to 2025 last November, for example. But it does mean the variance of Brick’s stock is probably more extreme than other players who rank around him on the draft board, which makes him one of the most interesting players to keep an eye on heading into 2026.

The last two drafts have been relatively light for high school catchers. In 2025, Michael Oliveto was the first high school catcher selected at 34th overall, and in 2024, Ivan Luciano was the first high school catcher selected at 64th. Brick currently ranks higher than where we had both Oliveto and Luciano at the time, and he has a chance to become the first prep catcher selected in the first round since Blake Mitchell (eighth) and Ralphy Velazquez (23rd) in 2023. 

Gavin Gallaher, 3B, North Carolina

• BA Draft Rank: 49

In our initial tracker of October risers and fallers, I noted Gallaher’s jump from outside the top 100 to No. 49 was due more to underrating him previously than any change in profile he made over the summer. In fact, as we’ve dug deeper into Gallaher’s profile, he seems like an extremely well-rounded college hitter who checks a lot of boxes and will be the sort of profile almost every team in the industry likes quite a bit.

Gallaher was three days shy of being a draft-eligible sophomore in the 2025 class, but will now get another year to add to an already impressive college resume. 

In two seasons with North Carolina, Gallaher has hit .320/.402/.556 with 25 home runs, 20 doubles with a 17.8% strikeout rate and 12.0% walk rate. He showed a significant power uptick as a sophomore, going from eight home runs in 2024 to 17 last season. That power jump also came with improvement to his approach. He dropped his strikeout rate from 20.1% in 2024 to 16.0% in 2025 while largely maintaining his walk rate. That improved approach was even more extreme when comparing his year-over-year conference numbers: 

• 2024: 24.3 K% and 8.7 BB%
• 2025: 14.0 K% and 10.9 BB%

The 6-foot-1, 190-pound righthanded hitter and third baseman could have made an even bigger jump with a stronger summer in the Cape Cod League. His 2025 tour with Chatham (.278/.350/.300 in 24 games) was better than his 2024 summer with Yarmouth-Dennis (.202/.227/.333 in 28 games), but his general lack of power with a wood bat is going to be a question mark for him on draft day.

A College Arm Outside The Top 50

Cole Carlon, LHP, Arizona State

• BA Draft Rank: 55

A demographic I’d like to do a better job with on our preseason draft rankings is college pitching. In last year’s class, we had two college pitchers who went inside the first five picks—Kade Anderson and Liam Doyle—ranked outside of the top 50 on our preseason draft board. 

In early February, we ranked Anderson 97th and Doyle 52nd. Both players were in the correct spots on draft day (Anderson fourth, Doyle eighth), but in hindsight, we could have done a better job slotting them both on the preseason list.

I think college pitchers can be a bit more “out of sight, out of mind” than other position groups because many top arms shut things down entirely in the summer and fall. Additionally, college pitchers have some of the greatest potential to shift their draft stock and make wholesale profile changes within one season compared to other draft demographics, either because of pitch changes, command changes, role changes or a mix of all three.

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With that in mind, I’ve been doing a lot of squinting at any college pitcher we have ranked in the 50-plus range on our current draft board. Carlon is one such player. He made a 15-spot jump in our October update, going from No. 70 to No. 55 with loud scout feedback for his efforts in the fall with Arizona State. 

Carlon has pitched as a reliever for two seasons at ASU, posting a 5.23 ERA in 94.2 innings with a 28.6% strikeout rate and 12.4% walk rate. Those numbers don’t show how much he improved as a sophomore, however, as he lowered his ERA from 7.75 to 3.33, improved his strikeout rate from 17.3% to 38.7% and lowered his walk rate from 13.7% to 11.3%. 

Among college pitchers with at least 50 innings in 2025, Carlon’s strikeout rate was fourth-best in the country, and his K-BB% was ninth-best. After improving his control in the spring, he appeared to continue trending up in this department in the summer with Team USA and in three appearances in the Cape Cod League.

Carlon has been largely a two-pitch pitcher in college, as his fastball and slider account for about 90% of his pitch usage. But they are both loud pitches. The fastball sits 94 mph and touches 98, while his slider is a banger of a breaking ball with tight, gyro shape in the mid 80s. He generated a 56% miss rate and 30.5% swinging-strike rate on 46% usage with the slider during the spring.

If Carlon can continue to make strides with his control, show more of a third pitch and handle a starting role this spring, this ranking could also look quite low on draft day.

Jack Arcamone, C, Georgia

Arcamone broke out in 2025 at Richmond, hitting .355/.463/.675 with 22 doubles, 13 home runs and 62 RBIs, setting career highs across every category. His offensive track record and underlying data make him one of the more intriguing analytic evaluations among college catchers. 

Arcamone produced a 92.9 mph average exit velocity and a 108.1 mph 90th percentile exit velocity, with multiple batted balls clearing 110 mph, confirming the ability to generate real force on contact. The ball leaves his barrel with consistent carry, and his ability to create leverage while pulling the ball in the air allows his strength to translate directly into game power.

He also frequently finds the barrel. His swing path and compact move to contact produce quality impact without excess length, and the metrics align with a hitter who can consistently create efficient contact trajectories. Arcamone chased at a 25% overall clip, reflecting a disciplined but not passive approach that supports his power-first contact style.

He transferred from Richmond to Georgia, where he’s expected to take on a larger share of the catching duties after serving in a part-time role previously. Arcamone’s offensive data already supports a high-level evaluation. More consistent defensive reps will determine whether he can fully anchor his value behind the plate.

Brady Ballinger, 1B, Kansas

Ballinger’s 2025 data places him among rare company. Only three Division I hitters with at least 65 batted-ball events reached all of the following marks last season: an average exit velocity of 89+ mph, 90th percentile EV of 106+, barrel rate above 30%, zone contact rate above 85%, overall contact rate above 80% and air-pull rate above 35%. Those were UT Arlington’s Tyce Armstrong, UCLA shortstop and No. 1 2026 prospect Roch Cholowsky and Ballinger.

Ballinger’s numbers reflect a balance of both high-end impact and consistent contact. He posted an 89.9 mph average exit velocity and a 106.1 mph 90th percentile EV in 2025. His 32.9% barrel rate and 50% hard-hit rate were among the best in the country, while an 85.2% zone contact rate and 80% overall contact rate show he reached those results without selling out for power. His 20.4% chase rate suggests a mostly disciplined approach that lets the strength play inside the zone.

Ballinger’s swing decisions show he picks his spots. He swung at 36.6% of all pitches, with a 69.4% heart swing rate and 59.1% zone swing rate, leaning toward selectivity over volume, though the approach can at times border on passive. The combination of strong contact metrics and disciplined swing choices gives his offensive data the shape of a player capable of producing both frequency and damage.

Ballinger enters his 2026 draft season with one of the most complete data sets among unranked players. His underlying metrics suggest he has a real chance to rise into the Top 100 conversation with continued production.

BRADY. FREAKIN'. BALLINGER.#Big12BSB | @Phillips66Gas pic.twitter.com/sNSBBiQuaQ

— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) May 23, 2025

Jayce Dobie, 1B, Nevada

Dobie’s offensive data points to an efficient, high-contact hitter with well-organized impact. He posted an 88.8 mph average exit velocity and a 101.9 mph 90th percentile EV, with a 109.8 mph max that suggests room for higher-end power as he continues to mature physically. His 41% hard-hit rate and 19.7% barrel rate indicate that a meaningful portion of his contact is struck with quality force and precision.

The contact frequency is a clear strength. Dobie made contact on 91.7% of swings in the zone and 84.8% overall, reflecting a short, direct move to the baseball that allows him to stay efficient while maintaining a reasonable swing rate. He swung at 40.6% of pitches overall with a 73.9% heart swing and 63.3% zone swing rate, demonstrating selectivity without falling into passivity. His 21.1% chase rate supports that approach.

Dobie’s batted-ball angles are well above average. He produced a 15.6-degree launch angle on hard-hit balls and a 14.2-degree pullside average, with a 42% air-pull rate, all of which point to an ability to lift and drive the baseball on a consistent trajectory. While the 90th percentile exit velocity does not reach the top tier of college hitters, the overall combination of frequent contact, solid impact, and well-shaped air contact suggests he extracts the most from his strength.

Dobie also pitches for Nevada, but the data clearly underscores that his future value lies at the plate, where his combination of contact skill, leverage and underlying bat speed gives him a productive and efficient offensive foundation.

Trey Hawsey, 1B, Louisiana Tech

Hawsey’s 2025 batted-ball data mirrors that of former Tennessee first baseman Andrew Fischer, now a first-round pick of the Brewers. Both produced near-identical contact and impact metrics in 2025 when Fischer was a junior and Hawsey a freshman. 

Hawsey’s 91.5 mph average exit velocity and 106 mph 90th percentile EV aren’t far behind Fischer’s 93.4 mph and 106.6 mph, with similar max EVs (109.1 vs. 109.7). Their hard-hit rates (53% from Hawsey vs. 60% from Fischer), barrel rates (30.1% from Hawsey vs. 35.7% from Fischer) and air-pull percentages (52.5% vs. 53.2%) also fall in line, as do their hard-hit launch angles (19.1 vs. 23.2 degrees)—numbers that reflect similar power generation and consistent air-ball trajectories to the pull side.

Their swing and approach data line up as well. Hawsey swung at 41.9% of pitches with 76.7% heart and 66.3% zone swing rates, nearly parallel to Fischer’s 39.2/78.7/69.8 breakdown. Both operated with strong chase control (Hawsey 23.7%, Fischer 18.2%) while maintaining steady contact rates (Hawsey 76.7% overall, Fischer 77.3%) and in-zone contact (85.4% vs. 83.7%). On paper, Hawsey’s batted-ball profile sits firmly in the same range as Fischer’s pre-draft breakout season.

The difference between the two lies in how their damage is distributed. Hawsey’s production comes primarily against righthanded pitching, while his impact drops significantly versus lefties. Fischer elevated his value by maintaining nearly identical output from both sides of the mound. Hawsey’s ability to balance that split will be key.

If he can replicate his contact quality against righties when facing same-handed pitching, the underlying data, highlighted by consistent air contact, disciplined swing control and legitimate power markers, suggests a profile capable of high-level offensive production within Conference USA.

Logan Hughes, OF, Texas Tech

Hughes turned in a breakout season at Texas Tech in 2025, hitting .327/.411/.697 with 19 home runs,13 doubles and underlying data that both affirmed that level of impact and suggested more could be on the way. 

He generated a 94.4 mph average exit velocity and a 106.7 mph 90th percentile EV, a set of metrics that point to real strength in a compact 5-foot-11, 197-pound frame. His 62% hard-hit rate and 32% barrel rate reflect a hitter whose swing is frequently on target and does damage.

At the plate, Hughes shows an efficient move to contact with strength through the zone and a controlled approach. He swung at 44.6% of pitches overall, including 75.8% over the heart and 68.8% in the zone, signaling an intent-driven approach that allows him to stay selective while still aggressive in advantage counts. His 23.8% chase rate supports the view that he operates with zone awareness and discipline. Contact rates of 88% in-zone and 84.2% overall confirm a swing built on precision rather than volume.

The batted-ball shape leaves room for additional power. Hughes’ 26.2% air-pull rate and 14.2-degree hard-hit launch angle show his best contact is primarily on a line, with modest lift to the pull side. His current swing path already produces firm line drives, but the underlying strength and balance suggest untapped carry if he lifts the ball even more. 

The data paints the picture of a polished lefthanded hitter with strong bat control, an accurate barrel and enough explosiveness to profile as one of the more advanced offensive players in the Big 12 entering 2026. Hughes could rocket up boards this year.

Owen Hull, OF, North Carolina

Hull transferred from George Mason to North Carolina after a breakout season that included 42 stolen bases and a data profile that places him among the more intriguing power-speed combinations in the country. At 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, he is a physical athlete with above-average run ability and enough quickness to at least test center field, though he’s spent most of his time in the corners.

Hull’s batted-ball data suggests legitimate offensive upside. He produced an 87.1 mph average exit velocity and a 104 mph 90th percentile EV as a sophomore in 2025 and paired those with a 46% hard-hit rate and a 20.1% barrel rate, indicating that a substantial share of his contact is firm and productive. 

The swing behavior supports those outcomes. He offered at 43% of pitches overall with a 77.9% heart swing rate and a 67.1% zone swing rate, maintaining steady aggression without losing control. His 24% chase rate, 87.7% zone contact rate and 80.7% overall contact rate round out a stable approach.

Hull’s batted-ball angles show that much of his damage comes on lower trajectories. He posted a 7.1-degree hard-hit launch angle, a 15.9% air-pull rate and a -5-degree average pullside launch angle, meaning his hardest contact often stays on a line or hits the ground rather than lifting. 

Even so, the combination of speed, leverage and impact strength gives him clear indicators of untapped game power. Hull’s athleticism, ability to impact the baseball and run tool make him one of the more interesting transfers in this year’s draft pool.

Wesley Jordan, OF, Texas A&M

Jordan transferred to Texas A&M from Baylor this summer after two productive seasons in the Big 12, hitting .331/.455/.632 in 2024 and .308/.396/.564 in 2025. He will be nearly 24 years old at the time of the 2026 draft, which is a limiting factor for his overall draft value, but the data foundation remains strong enough that continued production in the SEC could still elevate his stock.

Jordan’s underlying metrics reflect consistent, quality contact. He posted a 92.5 mph average exit velocity, a 108.5 mph 90th percentile EV, a 57% hard-hit rate and a 25.8% barrel rate, showing the ability to drive the baseball with real force when squared. 

His 47.9% swing rate, 87.1% heart swing and 77.2% zone swing illustrate an aggressive but efficient approach that keeps him active on hittable pitches. He chased at 25.2%, maintaining reasonable swing decisions while producing 87.7% zone contact and 76.5% overall contact.

The one notable constraint in his offensive data lies in batted-ball shape. Jordan’s 52.9% air-pull rate shows a willingness to lift the ball, but his 15.2-degree hard-hit launch angle and 7.8-degree pullside average indicate that his best contact occurs on line drives rather than consistently elevated balls. 

That helps explain why he produced only 10 home runs despite his strong exit velocity foundation.

Brayden Martin, 3B, Maryland

Martin’s approach is one of the most passive in college baseball, reflected in his 25.9% swing rate, the lowest among all Division I hitters with at least 15 batted-ball events. His offensive identity is built on elite contact precision and zone control rather than aggression. In 2025, he walked 59 times against 24 strikeouts, batting .319 with a .478 on-base percentage, and his data supports that outcome: a 95.3% zone contact rate and 94.7% overall contact rate, both exceptional.

The comparison to former Hawaii outfielder Matt Miura, a 2024 sixth-round pick of the Cardinals, is an instructive one. Both share a high-contact, low-impact offensive model defined by minimal chase and strong barrel accuracy. Their data sets nearly mirror each other, though Martin swings even less frequently and makes slightly firmer contact. Miura posted an 86.8 mph average exit velocity, a 98.3 mph 90th percentile EV and a 26% hard-hit rate, while Martin showed modestly more strength at 86.2 mph, 99.1 mph and 36%, respectively. Miura’s superior air-pull rate (13.3%) and hard-hit launch angle (11.6 degrees) reflect a better ability to lift, whereas Martin’s 20.9% air-pull rate with flatter pullside angles (-9.5 degrees) shows his contact stays mostly on the ground or line.

Martin’s discipline borders on stubbornness, but it is also the core of his success. His 8.4% chase rate underscores elite pitch recognition, and his 48.4% zone swing rate suggests he rarely expands his plan. 

The path forward will require increasing aggression and finding ways to convert contact quality into more extra-base output. He stole 16 bases in the NECBL this summer, a key supplemental skill that could bolster his value if it holds. If he adds even modest lift or damage against velocity, his elite contact efficiency could carry him into earlier draft consideration like it did for Miura in July.

Jack Natili, C, Cincinnati

Natili transferred to Cincinnati after beginning his career at Rutgers, and his sophomore season marked a clear step forward in both production and batted-ball quality. He hit .338/.451/.556 with 14 doubles and nine home runs, setting new career highs across nearly every offensive category. His frame and strength translate to the data, which reflect a balanced combination of impact and approach that should keep him on the radar among draft-eligible catchers.

Natili’s 2025 contact quality was impressive. He produced a 93.1 mph average exit velocity with a 107.5 mph 90th percentile EV and 112.4 mph max, along with a 51% hard-hit rate and 23.1% barrel rate, numbers that support consistent loud contact to all fields. The power foundation is clearly in place. His 45% overall swing rate, 84.2% heart swing rate, and 75.8% zone swing rate show a hitter who hunts strikes aggressively without empty effort, and his 22.8% chase rate suggests he limits unnecessary expansion.

The contact profile is less clean. His 79.5% zone contact rate and 73.2% overall illustrate the room that remains for improving bat-to-ball consistency, while his 13.6-degree hard-hit launch angle and 25.5% air-pull rate point to a relatively neutral batted-ball shape that could benefit from more consistent lift to his pull side.

Behind the plate, Natili is still refining his defensive actions, but his plus arm strength and developing receiving skills suggest a long-term path to staying at catcher. Offensively, the mix of strength, leverage and emerging discipline gives him a real chance to establish himself as one of the better offensive backstops in the 2026 class.

Jack Natili gives that one a ride to keep @GoBearcatsBASE within #Big12BSB | @Phillips66Gas pic.twitter.com/FEYTZh0K88

— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) May 22, 2025

Joe Tiroly, 2B, Virginia

Tiroly’s transfer from Rider to Virginia comes after a dominant sophomore season that redefined his offensive profile. He hit .377/.481/.749 with 16 doubles, 18 home runs and 70 RBIs, walking 36 times against 25 strikeouts. The production was supported by one of the more advanced batted-ball data sets among mid-major players and reflects both bat speed and consistency of impact.

Tiroly posted a 93.1 mph average exit velocity with a 107.5 mph 90th percentile EV and 112.4 mph max, paired with a 51% hard-hit rate and 23.1% barrel rate. The combination of contact regularity and quality places him among the most productive returning hitters in the class. His swing decisions are assertive without being reckless—he swung at 45% of pitches overall with an 84.2% heart swing rate and 75.8% zone swing rate, expanding at a manageable 22.8% chase rate.

While his contact rates (79.5% in-zone, 73.2% overall) are solid, Tiroly’s underlying batted-ball shape could still be refined. His 13.6-degree hard-hit launch angle and 25.5% air-pull rate suggest a relatively neutral trajectory and room to add more consistent lift, especially to the pull side, to better access his raw power.

The 6-foot, 200-pounder combines strength with compact athleticism and a swing built for high exit velocities. His track record of contact quality, plate discipline and game power makes him one of the more intriguing bats to transition from mid-major to ACC competition, where sustained data performance could elevate him into early round consideration.

Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA

• 2026 Draft Ranking: No. 1

Cholowsky enters the 2026 draft cycle as the top player in the class with a complete data foundation and the defensive certainty clubs covet in a top-of-the-draft shortstop. The actions at short are easy and fully formed. He plays low to the ground with clean glove presentation, advanced footwork and internal clock and a short, accurate arm stroke that produces carry from multiple angles. The pace and decision-making separate him. UCLA coach John Savage publicly referenced Brandon Crawford when describing Cholowsky’s defensive presence, and the comparison aligns with how he organizes the field and manages tempo. There is no projection question about where he plays.

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Cholowsky’s offensive profile is supported by one of the most convincing batted-ball datasets in recent college classes. Cholowsky, who hit .353/.480/.710 with 23 home runs and 45 walks to 30 strikeouts last season en route to being named Baseball America’s College Player of the Year, produced a 91.5 mph average exit velocity with a 106.5 mph 90th percentile mark. He paired a 54% hard-hit rate and 31.3% barrel rate with an 89% zone contact rate and 81.7% overall contact rate while also lifting the ball with intent, shown in his 44.3% air-pull rate. He was the only hitter in the country to reach all of those thresholds. The bat speed, contact frequency and contact quality allow him to profile without needing mechanical overhaul.

He will chase at times, and the approach in Japan with Team USA showed some timing drift against offspeed pitches, though that trip was a uniform struggle for the roster. The two-strike approach remains competitive and adaptable. Cholowsky’s overall profile is that of a shortstop with above-average defensive reliability and a hitter with top-tier contact and impact markers. He should be one of college baseball’s best offensive players in 2026.

Derek Curiel, OF, LSU

• 2026 Draft Ranking: No. 5

Curiel arrived at LSU with one of the more polished hit tools in the class, and it immediately translated against SEC competition. He hit .345/.470/.519 with seven home runs and 20 doubles while serving as the team’s everyday left fielder and leadoff hitter. The swing is simple with a direct path and few moving parts, producing consistent line-drive contact rather than targeted lift. After adding strength over the offseason, he is expected to move to center field this spring, and evaluators anticipate at least average outfield defense with efficient routes and above-average feel for timing plays off the bat.

Curiel’s offensive identity is rooted in swing decisions and contact quality. His 34% overall swing rate reflects a patient approach that can veer passive, but his contact skill is among the best in the class. Last season, he made contact on 94.7% of swings in the zone and 85.8% overall—both well above college first-round benchmarks. His 51% hard-hit rate and 89.9 mph average exit velocity, paired with a 104.1 mph 90th percentile, indicate that added strength is already materializing into firmer contact. His 31.8% air-pull rate and lower average launch angles support the observation that he generates flush contact but without consistent lift intent.

The developmental focus lies in how often Curiel is able to inflict damage. His 51.3% zone-swing and 56.6% heart-swing rates show an extremely tight approach that values base-reaching but leaves power untapped in hitter’s counts. The underlying markers suggest at least average raw power and the ability to access more if he selectively hunts lift in counts designed for damage.

Curiel projects as a high-contact, top-of-the-order profile with room to grow in impact if he refines when and how he looks to elevate.

Drew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech

• 2026 Draft Ranking: No. 16

Burress has been a divisive evaluation for clubs due to his shorter stature. Despite the frame questions, Burress has produced high-level impact against ACC pitching and enters the spring as one of the more data-forward outfield bats in the class.

Burress is a selective but intentional swinger. His 36.8% overall swing rate shows he does not chase offense through volume. Instead, he targets pitches he can drive. 

His 70.3% heart-swing and 62% zone-swing rates land around average for impact bats while supporting an approach built around controlling damage windows. He chased only 19.8% of the time, which is comfortably better than typical power profiles. 

When he goes, the quality of contact stands out. Last season, Burress posted a 91.7 mph average exit velocity and 106.9 mph 90th percentile with a 52% hard-hit rate and 24.9% barrel rate. Each of those numbers indicates real strength in the hands and forearms with efficient bat speed.

The batted-ball shape is geared toward carry. Burress posted a 57.6% air-pull rate and a 14.7 degree average launch angle to the pull side, reflecting a deliberate attempt to lift and drive the baseball. The consistency of his barrel direction is a positive indicator for translating to wood, though the margin for timing error will tighten at the next level. Clubs that are skeptical cite the possibility that velocity at scale and professional breaking ball depth could limit how often he gets to his damage contact. Supporters see an efficient move, true strength and a well-structured batted-ball profile that is difficult to coach into players who lack it.

Burress enters the year as a data-supported power bat with clear conviction in approach and lift intent.

Caden Bogenpohl, OF, Missouri State

• 2026 Draft Ranking: No. 38

Bogenpohl fits into a well-defined physical and offensive archetype shared by recent Guardians draft picks Jace LaViolette and Nolan Schubart. All three are extra-large outfield profiles with real strength and plus raw power. 

Bogenpohl’s quality of contact data from his sophomore season aligns closely with that group. He posted a 94.2 mph average exit velocity and a 110.4 mph 90th percentile exit velocity. His 55% hard-hit rate supports the strength-driven contact profile. The bat speed and strength traits are evident and allow him to produce impact without needing to maximize swing length or external effort.

Where Bogenpohl’s profile diverges significantly is in batted-ball shape and contact consistency. His overall contact rate (69.6%) and zone-contact rate (76.9%) trail both LaViolette and Schubart, which places more pressure on the impact contact he does generate. 

Bogenpohl’s groundball rate of 46.2% is significantly higher than LaViolette’s (25.9%) and Schubart’s (19.6%). His hard-hit launch angles and pullside launch angles are notably lower, as well, which shows that much of his best contact is occurring on flatter or downward planes. His 26.5% air-pull rate reinforces the observation that he has not yet accessed his power consistently in the air.

The chase behavior is well above average. He chased 16% of pitches overall, and his two-strike chase rates are in line with LaViolette and Schubart. The developmental question is whether or not he can make more contact and how efficiently he can reshape his angles to convert power into more power production.

Bogenpohl enters the year as a high-exit-velocity center fielder with real strength and room for meaningful gains if he can adjust the swing plane to reduce ground balls and access more frequent pullside lift.

Maddox Molony, SS, Oregon

• 2026 Draft Ranking: No. 39

Molony has produced across two seasons at Oregon with a .314/.405/.569 line and 25 home runs. The foundation of his offensive profile is contact efficiency. Molony’s 90.8% zone-contact rate and 81% overall contact rate are comfortably above the college baselines, reflecting a direct swing with minimal length and reliable barrel entry. 

The swing decisions are assertive. A 47.7% overall swing rate paired with an 80.5% heart-swing and 76.2% zone-swing rate show he is proactively getting off swings at hittable strikes rather than operating passively or in react mode. Still, he limited chases to a 24.6% clip in 2025, which is moderate.

The contact quality shows real pullside intent. His 50.9% air-pull rate supports a swing geared to access the left-field line and left-center gap rather than working line to line. His 88.3 mph average exit velocity and 102.9 mph 90th percentile are closer to average among hitters in the top half of the class, while the 40% hard-hit rate and 20% barrel rate indicate that his best contact presents as selectively strong rather than universally loud. 

The average launch and impact patterns suggest that the power he gets is primarily a product of how often he gets to the pullside air window rather than raw force.

A 33.1% chase rate with two strikes shows some approach leakage when behind. Overall, though, Molony is an athletic middle infielder with above-average contact skills.

Carson Tinney, C, Texas

• 2026 Draft Ranking: No. 43

Tinney’s profile is built on baseball-melting power that shows up consistently in the data. The contact he produces at peak is among the firmest in the class. Tinney posted a 95.8 mph average exit velocity and a 111.1 mph 90th percentile with a 115.6 mph max in 2025. His 58% hard-hit rate and 31.5% barrel rate show that when his swing connects, it produces top-end damage. 

A 55.8% air-pull rate with a 17.7-degree hard-hit launch angle indicate that his best contact is already organized in the air to the pull side rather than needing swing-path rework to access the power.

The question is how often he’ll get to it. Tinney’s overall contact rate sits at 69.4% with a 79.4% rate in-zone. The approach is not reckless. His 39.3% swing rate and 20.8% chase rate show he is not expanding wildly or chasing power outcomes. 

Reports out of the fall at Texas indicated a return to loud contact after a poor summer on the Cape, consistent with his underlying strength and bat speed.

Steven Milam, SS, LSU

• 2026 Draft Ranking: No. 57

Milam’s contact profile is built on frequency and barrel accuracy rather than raw impact. His 89.3 mph average exit velocity and 102.2 mph 90th percentile show that his hardest contact does not reach the top end of the class, but the ball comes off his bat with steady firmness. The contact rates are the defining feature. He made contact on 91.8% of swings in the zone and 84.8% of swings overall, which reflects a swing that finds the ball often.

The batted-ball shape supports how his production is built. Milam works to the pull side in the air. 

Milam’s developmental focus is approach-based. He makes contact on much of what he chooses to hit, but LSU’s coaches would like to see him be more aggressive on pitches thrown in favorable locations. Last season, he posted a 66.7% heart-swing rate, which was below average. He also chased at a 24.5% clip, which is solid but far from elite.

Milam does not profile as a top-end power producer, but the underlying marker is that the process to create contact is stable, the angles are repeatable and the athleticism supports continued refinement. The path forward lies in leveraging those traits to convert swing decisions into more frequent damage outcomes.

Ryder Helfrick, C, Arkansas

• 2026 Draft Ranking: No. 70

Helfrick enters the spring in the mix for the top catcher spot in the class with a profile that blends defensive stability and emerging offensive indicators. Arkansas coach Dave Van Horn told Baseball America that Helfrick’s receiving took another step forward this fall and that he will call his own game this season—a notable marker of trust in his field awareness and handling. The arm strength and overall catching skills give him a real pathway to stay behind the plate.

Offensively, the contact quality suggests more impact may be coming. His 87.2 mph average exit velocity last season sits near the middle of the college range, but his 106.3 mph 90th percentile exit velocity shows there is real strength in the bat when he gets to his best contact. The 50% hard-hit rate supports that, too. 

His barrel rate (16.9%) did not separate last year, but his batted-ball angles did. He created a 22.3 degree launch angle on his hard-hit balls and an average 13.1-degree launch angle to the pull side.

The swing decisions point to intent without over-expansion. Helfrick swung at 78.8% of pitches over the heart and 72.3% in the zone, while chasing at a 21.3% clip. The contact rates are lighter at 78.3% in-zone and 69.8% overall, which places more emphasis on how often he can get to the contact that produces his stronger batted-ball outcomes.

Van Horn said Helfrick was Arkansas’ best offensive performer this fall. The data from 2025 supports the idea that his strength, swing decisions and batted-ball shape give him a chance to show more damage if the contact rate improves.

Aiden Robbins, OF, Texas

• 2026 Draft Ranking: No. 87

Robbins’ contact is consistently firm. He posted a 91.5 mph average exit velocity and a 107.1 mph 90th percentile with a 109.8 mph max in 2025. He recorded a 48% hard-hit rate and a 25.2% barrel rate, which indicates that a large share of his balls in play were struck with significant force.

His swing decisions show he is selective about when to unleash but does not get passive in the zone. He swung at 42.2% of pitches overall, with an 80.0% swing rate on pitches over the heart and a 69.5% swing rate in the strike zone. His 20.6% chase rate shows limited expansion outside the zone.

The contact rates reflect frequent ball-in-play outcomes. He made contact on 87.1% of his swings in the zone and 79.6% of swings overall.

The batted-ball direction is less air-pull oriented. His 30.2% air-pull rate shows that a smaller portion of his airborne contact occurred to the pull side compared to players who produced similar exit velocities. But the swing decisions, contact purity and raw strength are all working in the favor of the 6-foot-2, 190-pound outfielder.

Myles Bailey, 1B, Florida State

• 2026 Draft Ranking: No. 94

Bailey is a 6-foot-4, 265-pound lefthanded hitter whose offensive identity is built around top-of-the-scale raw power. He showed 70-grade raw power as a high schooler and carried it directly into college, homering 19 times as a freshman at Florida State.

The batted-ball data reflects the strongest impact contact in the class. Among college hitters with at least 100 batted-ball events in 2025, Bailey led the country in average exit velocity (96.9 mph) and ranked second in 90th percentile exit velocity (112.1 mph). The contact he produces when the barrel arrives is consistently gaudy, and his swing path is constructed to access that strength. The move to the ball is steep, producing high carry and long flight when with home runs leaving the bat to all fields.

Bailey’s swing characteristics that create that power also show up in the swing-and-miss. He struck out at a 31% rate in 2025, and his overall contact rate was 59%, which is well below average, even for a power hitter. The mismatch between contact frequency and the impact level of the contact he does produce is central to his offensive profile.

Bailey produces the hardest and most damaging contact in the class, and he will need to increase contact frequency to fully access the value of that power.

How The Brewers Find Hidden Value

As MLB has shortened the draft and put greater restrictions on how teams can spend, it’s become harder for clubs to sign quality players after the 10th round. In the first 10 rounds, each pick has a slot value, which collectively make up a team’s total bonus pool. For picks in rounds 11-20, teams can sign players for up to $150,000, but anything beyond that amount counts against a team’s bonus pool. 

If a team has enough bonus pool space saved from underslot deals on players in the first 10 rounds, it can use that money to sign players in rounds 11-20 to deals above $150,000. Occasionally, that means a seven-figure bonus for a high school player, like the Astros did with outfielder/first baseman Ryan Clifford in 2022. The Angels have done it more than any team—they signed lefthander Mason Albright (2021) and righthanders Caden Dana (2022) and Trey Gregory-Alford (2024) to bonuses north of $1 million—and they have five of the top eight bonuses for rounds 11-20 since 2021.

But 83% of draft picks who signed after the 10th round since 2021 have gotten bonuses of $150,000 or less. For 29 teams, they lean into drafting college players with those picks.

The Brewers take a different approach.

Since 2021, Milwaukee has both drafted and signed more high school players than any team in rounds 11-20. Other than the Rangers, no team has drafted even half the number of high school players the Brewers have in those rounds. Most teams are averaging one high school signing per year from rounds 11-20. The Brewers are averaging 3-4 per year.

organization	HS players drafted	HS Players signed
Brewers	34	18
Angels	14	13
Rangers	22	10
Cubs	14	9
Blue Jays	15	8
Astros	12	7
Padres	11	7
Reds	12	7
Royals	11	7
Braves	7	6
Giants	10	6
Guardians	9	6
Tigers	11	6
Dodgers	9	5
Mets	9	5
Orioles	8	5
Phillies	6	5
Pirates	11	5
Athletics	7	4
Yankees	6	4
Nationals	7	3
Rays	6	3
Red Sox	10	3
Twins	5	2
White Sox	3	2
Diamondbacks	16	1
Marlins	4	1
Cardinals	4	0
Mariners	1	0
Rockies	1	0

The Brewers’ strategy looks like it will pay off. It’s not just that they’re using these draft picks on high school players—it’s that they are acquiring underscouted, undercommitted players and getting them mostly for bonuses in the low-to-mid six figures.

Players The Brewers Have Hit On

Milwaukee has signed three of their best prospects using this unique draft approach:

player	state	committed	year	round	bonus
Bishop Letson, RHP	IN	Purdue	2023	11	$486,200
Josh Adamczewski, 2B/OF	IN	Ball State	2023	15	$252,500
Luke Adams, 1B/3B	IL	Michigan State	2022	12	$282,500

Bishop Letson is Milwaukee’s No. 5 prospect who reached Double-A as a 20-year-old. Josh Adamczewski is ranked ninth and had a strong Arizona Fall League campaign as one of the best pure hitters in the Brewers’ system. Luke Adams is just outside the top 10 and, while he’s a divisive prospect, he played in Double-A as a 21-year-old and has a case to fit into the 6-10 range on the Brewers’ list.

The Brewers didn’t technically draft righthander Ethan Dorchies in the 11-20 round range, but his signing fits with that same approach. Dorchies, who was an Illinois high school pitcher committed to Illinois-Chicago, went to Milwaukee in the 10th round and signed for just $162,500, which was under the $180,400 slot value for the pick. This year, Dorchies ranked as the No. 3 prospect in the Rookie-level Arizona Complex League as an up-arrow pitcher with a good mix of performance and projection indicators. 

When the Brewers didn’t sign high school righthander Chris Levonas, their 2024 supplemental second-round pick, they pivoted to give $665,000 to 15th-round pick Jayden Dubanewicz, a Florida high school righthander committed to Florida, and $850,000 to 18th-rounder Tyler Renz, a New York high school righthander committed to St. John’s. While our Brewers Top 30 list for the Prospect Handbook isn’t finalized yet, both are candidates to make the cut based on how they pitched this year in their pro debuts. 

For the most part, these players had a few things in common:

• They were not heavily recruited out of high school and were committed to colleges that are not the schools typically sweating out whether they are going to lose recruits to the draft.
• They were not widely scouted during their spring season. Letson, for example, ranked just outside the top 200 prospects in his draft year, while the rest were further under the radar and not priority names for teams to see, especially above the area scout level. 
• They were all signable for under $1 million, and most could be had for under $500,000. 

The players are also heavily concentrated in the Midwest, as area scout Ginger Poulson signed Letson, Adamczewski, Adams and Dorchies.

The Late-Round College Alternative

The Brewers are not the only team that has found quality high school prospects for mid six figures after the 10th round, but they are the only team that consistently tries to attack that group in the draft. League-wide, the best prospects from that crop since 2021 is Dodgers outfielder Zyhir Hope, an 11th-round pick of the Cubs in 2023 who signed for $400,000 out of a Virginia high school. Hope was a relatively later bloomer who committed to North Carolina his senior year and is now a Top 100 Prospect. The Orioles drafted Nate George, an Illinois high school outfielder committed to Northwest Florida JC, in the 16th round in 2024 and signed him for $455,000. George hit .337/.413/.483 split between three levels this year, which he finished in High-A Aberdeen, and is also now in the Top 100.

Rather than follow this approach to the draft, what most organizations do in rounds 11-20 is load up on college players, as teams have much greater certainty that they can sign those players compared to the high school prospects. But what value are teams getting from the college players they’re drafting in rounds 11-20?

Since 2021, the player in that group who has accumulated the most WAR according to Baseball Reference, is infielder Caleb Durbin, a Braves 14th-round pick out of Washington University in 2021 who has been good for 2.8 wins (with the Brewers, incidentally). Yankees first baseman/catcher Ben Rice (12th round in 2021), Nationals righthander Brad Lord (18th round in 2022), Cardinals righthander Matt Svanson (13th round by the Blue Jays in 2021) have also all been great late-round college picks. 

Mariners righthander Logan Evans (12th round in 2023) and Dodgers lefthander Justin Wroblewski (11th round in 2021) are trending that way, too. There are certainly going to be other current minor league prospects who will end up being big leaguers. And while they might not be prominent now, they could surprise us later on and, with hindsight, we will look back and realize they were underrated. 

While there are other big leaguers who have come from these rounds since 2021, for the most part, it’s not a particularly inspiring group. We’re talking more about useful big league pieces deeper down a major league roster than everyday position players or starting pitchers.

As it is, there isn’t one team that stands out for its skill in drafting late-round college players. The Padres got infielder Graham Pauley, righthander River Ryan and lefthander Alek Jacob to the big leagues. The Astros have done the same with outfielder Zach Dezenzo and infielders Chad Stevens and Will Wagner. Getting any college player drafted that late to the big leagues is a win, but so far, these are all peripheral parts on a major league roster. 

This shouldn’t be surprising. Elite college players go off the board in the early rounds. By the third or fourth round, the next tier of college players are gone. By the sixth round of the draft this year, 25 of the 30 picks were college players. From the 7th to 10th rounds, it’s almost all college players teams are drafting. 

Teams can still find good college talent in rounds 6-10. The Yankees certainly reaped the rewards of that this season with Cam Schlittler, whose stuff has transformed since signing as a seventh-round pick out of Northeastern in 2022 to become one of the game’s best pitching prospects. 

But by the time the draft moves past the 10th round, the available collegiate talent pool thins considerably. The college players still available in round 11 are leftovers. Consider that, in the 2025 draft, 247 of them were already picked over compared to just 64 high school players in the first 10 rounds. And with so many teams going college-heavy to fill out the second half of their draft, it only gets thinner from there. 

Most of the college players in these rounds get drafted with a high probability of becoming organizational players. What’s the difference between the college player a team drafts in the 17th round and the college players they sign as an undrafted free agent? It’s minimal, if anything. Yet, almost every team has spent the second half of their recent drafts focused on signable college players.

Every team but the Brewers.

Milwaukee, clearly, has taken a different approach. Drafting so many high school players in the later rounds does come with an opportunity cost, but how many great college players are available in that range anyway?

While the Brewers don’t have a ton of college talent to show for their 11-20 round picks since 2021, that might be changing. Righthander Tyson Hardin is the best one they’ve addeo. A 12th-round pick in 2024, Hardin was a shaky reliever at Mississippi State who is now the No. 3 pitching prospect in the organization after a strong season as a starting pitcher who reached Double-A. Righthander Brett Wichrowski, a 13th-rounder from Bryant in 2023, has flashed exciting stuff at times, reaching 100 mph with a good chance he ends up in a bullpen role. Righthander K.C. Hunt was an undrafted free agent out of Mississippi State in 2023 who was Milwaukee’s co-Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2024, though he wasn’t as sharp in 2025. 

With the exception of center fielder Braylon Payne in 2024, the Brewers are typically a college-heavy team in the first round. They drafted catcher Marco Dinges in the fourth round out of Florida State that same year, and he has developed into one of their top 10 prospects after a big season at the plate. They’ve also found sneaky collegiate talent with a player like reliever Craig Yoho, who has one of the best changeups in the minors, posted a 0.94 ERA in 47.2 Triple-A innings this year and was a $10,000 signing as an eighth-rounder out of Indiana in 2023.

Why Doesn’t Everyone Just Copy The Brewers?

When the second half of the draft hits, the Brewers have shifted gears and are seeing promising returns on those high school prospects. That’s a major success for the organization, because, while the strategy sounds simple, it’s not as easy as just drafting a bunch of high school players the team likes in rounds 11-20 and hoping everything works out. Executing like the Brewers have takes planning and skill.

To successfully emulate the Brewers’ unique approach, an organization would have to:

1. Save money somewhere on bonuses in the first 10 rounds. In order to have enough pool space left to spend after the 10th round, there’s a lot of early-round strategy that has to be executed properly.
2. Get the signability right. There are plenty of high school players available after the 10th round that teams are high on, but there’s little point in drafting them if they are only willing to sign for $1-2 million. A team can’t just draft any high school player it wants and hope they’re willing to sign for what is offered. With this in mind, area scouts play a crucial role in helping to gauge signability, determining which players a team should spend its limited scouting time on during the spring and which players an organization should ultimately draft using this strategy.
3. Properly evaluate the players. The idea isn’t just to sign high school players for the sake of signing high school players. The goal is to find undervalued high school players who are willing to sign for moderate bonuses. 

The Brewers did that again this year. In rounds 11-20, they drafted high school players with eight of their 10 picks, and the only players they signed from those rounds were high schoolers: Shortstop CJ Hughes ($700,000, UC Santa Barbara commit), righthanders Chase Bentley ($757,500, Texas A&M commit), Ma’Kale Holden ($410,000, Alabama commit) and Luke Roupe ($225,000, South Carolina commit) and catcher Rylan Mills ($247,500, Southeast Missouri State commit). 

Milwaukee’s willingness to keep betting on undervalued high school players has helped the organization exploit a draft inefficiency and given the Brewers a quiet edge in building one of the strongest farm systems in the game. With results that speak for themselves, it’s a blueprint other teams should consider adopting.

Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida

• 2026 Draft Ranking: No. 4

Peterson enters his draft year as the top-ranked pitcher in the 2026 class thanks to his unique release traits and multiple potential plus pitches.

While Peterson’s back of the baseball card numbers have not fully aligned with his talent yet, there has been steady movement toward a more polished version of what his stuff suggests he can be. Across two seasons, he owns a 5.30 ERA with 173 strikeouts to 76 walks over 132.1 innings. His 2025 performance marked progress, as he posted a 4.28 ERA with 96 strikeouts to 32 walks in 69.1 innings, showing improved strike-throwing and more durable execution. However, he allowed more line drives and fewer ground balls in 2025 than he did as a freshman.

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One of the clearest points of focus came from how hitters—especially righties—fared against his fastball. Righthanders hit .253 against it in 2025. To address that, Peterson has introduced a two-seam fastball intended to change the look and movement profile of his attack. The two-seamer adds horizontal run rather than vertical sink and is used situationally to vary angles and avoid giving hitters repeated looks at the same shape rather than as a primary pitch.

Peterson’s approach is most effective when he works north and south against both lefties and righties. To sharpen that style, he’s raised his arm slot to an even more over-the-top release, reinforcing the vertical attack lanes that best suit his pitch shapes. He has also continued refining his delivery by staying stacked over his back leg, moving more directly toward the plate and improving the efficiency of his arm action. Those adjustments, paired with added strength, have helped him throw more strikes throughout the fall—an area that has fluctuated at times over his first two seasons.

The physical gains and mechanical clarity have also shown up in velocity and pitch quality. Peterson has sat consistently in the high 90s with several fastballs near triple digits in the fall. He has worked his offspeed pitches in with better deception, especially his slider, which remains his primary secondary pitch. His curveball has looked particularly sharp from his more extreme slot, and his changeup has also benefited from the improved arm speed and sequencing in his delivery, allowing him to maintain similar intent across his pitch mix.

Peterson’s profile has always suggested a frontline starter if the command and pitch execution tightened. His offseason adjustments were designed to make his strengths play more consistently while addressing how hitters keyed on his fastball. If the improved strike-throwing and more efficient delivery carry into the spring, the top-ranked pitcher in the class will arrive in his draft season with the momentum evaluators have been waiting to see reflected in his performance line.

Jackson Flora, RHP, UC Santa Barbara

• 2026 Draft Ranking: No. 17

Flora enters his draft year as the ace of UC Santa Barbara’s staff and firmly positioned among the nation’s premier talents. His sophomore season provided a clear look at how high the ceiling may eventually reach. There is a real pathway for him to contend with Peterson for the title of top pitcher in the 2026 class, a scenario reminiscent of former teammate Tyler Bremner’s rise in 2025 when Bremner became the first pitcher selected and the highest draft pick in UCSB history at No. 2 overall.

Across two seasons, Flora has thrown 122 innings with a 3.69 ERA and 126 strikeouts against 42 walks. His 2025 campaign marked a full step forward. Working almost entirely as a starter, he delivered a 3.60 ERA with 86 strikeouts to 17 walks over 75 innings. The raw ingredients were already present, but the goal now is conversion from promise to sustained dominance. Flora and UCSB coach Andrew Checketts spent the offseason tailoring his arsenal to get there.

The fastball was the first point of emphasis. Flora’s velocity has long been a separator, and the pitch could show explosive life at the top of the zone, but there were periods in 2025 when the shape backed up, creating a dead zone look that hitters could square. A four-start stretch in March illustrated that vulnerability when Flora allowed 20 earned runs in 17.1 innings.

To combat this, grip adjustments were made to help the pitch carry more consistently, and early fall outings suggested the change took hold. Flora sat 98.5 mph in his opening appearance of the fall with his first pitch registering 99 and holding its plane with more conviction at the upper part of the strike zone.

Attention then shifted to solving lefthanded hitters, who found more success against Flora last season, largely due to the lack of a reliable weapon that moved away from their barrels. After experimenting with splitters and circle-change variations without the desired consistency in 2025, Flora worked to adopt a kick changeup, a pitch trending across professional baseball thanks to a grip and release that keep arm speed intact. He has taken to the pitch quickly, and it now gives him a true change-of-pace offering to neutralize lefties.

Flora also added another breaking ball to bridge the gap between his sweeping breaking ball and his firmer slider. The new curveball carries a slurvy profile that adds another look without replacing the shapes already in his mix. The result is greater flexibility to sequence based on hitter tendencies rather than relying on only two breaking speeds.

Flora’s capacity to make these adjustments stems from two core strengths that have been evident since his arrival: advanced feel for spin and fast, athletic arm action. Those traits have allowed him to integrate new shapes and grips without overhauling his delivery.

As he enters 2026, Flora’s arsenal consists of a four-seam fastball, sweeper, slider, curveball and kick changeup. With improved fastball carry and a more complete plan against opposite-handed hitters, the Gauchos’ ace is positioned to anchor his team’s staff and place himself at the forefront of the national draft conversation.

Joey Volchko, RHP, Georgia

• 2026 Draft Ranking: No. 25

Few pitchers in the 2026 class offer raw material as formidable as Volchko, a 6-foot-4, 225-pound righthander whose pure arsenal has long pointed to early first-round evaluations. His time at Stanford showcased that upside in flashes, but it also laid bare the distance between what he could be and what he has been. 

Across two seasons and 113 innings, Volchko posted a 5.89 ERA with a 20.6% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate—a profile shaped largely by difficulty repeating his delivery and executing within the strike zone. The inconsistency clouded his on-field value even as evaluators remained steadfast about the ceiling.

Volchko sought a reset over the summer and transferred to Georgia, aligning himself with Bulldogs coach Wes Johnson, whose reputation as a progressive and detail-oriented pitching developer has been earned over a long track record that includes a stint as a big league pitching coach. The partnership is aimed at consolidating Volchko’s considerable power into something more predictable. 

Volchko arrived in Athens with a fastball that averaged 95 mph and reached 99, showing heavy cutting action. He paired it with a high-spin slider around 90, a mid-80s power curveball, a cutter in the low 90s and a low-90s changeup. Johnson adjusted the fastball grip to produce greater carry at the top of the zone while preserving the velocity and general intent. He also helped Volchko add a high-80s sweeper to expand his breaking ball shapes and introduced a true changeup to complement the existing velocity bands in his mix. 

Strength and conditioning work, along with an emphasis on driving more directly toward the plate, have naturally lowered Volchko’s arm slot by roughly 3-4 inches. It is the same type of progression Johnson said happened with Paul Skenes, whom he coached at LSU in 2023.

The totality of these changes is oriented toward allowing Volchko to live in the strike zone more often and to get more predictable movement profiles on each pitch. The power has never been the question. The determining factor is whether Volchko’s delivery and command can stabilize to let the weapons play inning over inning rather than in isolated spurts.

If the adjustments hold into the spring and the strike-throwing improves, the path is there for Volchko to push firmly into the upper tier of the 2026 draft board and possibly into the SP1 discussion. The talent has always suggested that possibility. Georgia will now attempt to bring it into full view.

Blake Morningstar, RHP, Wake Forest

• 2026 Draft Ranking: No. 86

Morningstar has steadily climbed from a bullpen role into a key rotation piece at Wake Forest, and he enters 2026 positioned to be one of the more intriguing power-armed righthanders in the class. His first season in Winston-Salem came with impact innings but also growing pains, particularly in the form of home runs. He allowed 10 homers in 29 innings as a freshman. In 2025, he worked more than twice the volume at 79 innings, again allowing 10 home runs but cutting his ERA to 3.87 and demonstrating sharper execution of his best traits.

Morningstar has a strong and durable 6-foot-4, 225-pound frame with a long, whippy arm stroke that creates carry and late life. He works with two fastballs, a low-80s curveball that at its best shows plus potential with depth and two-plane tilt, an upper-80s cutter and a mid-to-upper-80s changeup.

Morningstar’s developmental focus this fall centered on refining the fastball profile and expanding his breaking shapes. Wake Forest’s staff worked to create more separation between the four-seam and two-seam looks, giving him more distinct movement patterns rather than two versions of similar flights. They also introduced a sweeper that has tested extremely well in its early iterations, generating roughly 18 inches of sweep with about three inches of vertical break. The addition gives him a broader set of east-west looks to complement a heater that already plays with life.

Physical development has accompanied the pitch design work. Wake Forest coach Tom Walter noted that Morningstar engaged in a more aggressive strength program aimed at packing additional muscle onto his frame. The added strength has correlated with a velocity bump. This fall, his fastball has sat 95-97 mph and touched 98, a notable jump from 2025 when he averaged 93.4 on fastballs.

Morningstar already produced a quality statistical line in 2025 and showed progress in limiting damage while carrying a full starter’s workload. With improved velocity and the continued shaping of multiple fastball and breaking ball profiles, he has the chance to emerge as one of the ACC’s more imposing arms in 2026. His development trajectory is trending in the right direction, and the arsenal now offers enough dimension to challenge hitters on multiple planes.